PollCheck
UK Parliament By-Elections
Tracker, polling and constituency analysis for by-elections to the UK House of Commons.
Currently pending
By-elections this Parliament
Date TBC - Pending
Aberdeen South
SNP defending. Vacancy expected after Stephen Flynn resigns to take up his Holyrood seat. SNP majority of 3,758 (8.1pp) over Labour at GE2024.
Full analysis ->26 February 2026 - Result
Gorton and Denton
Green gain from Labour. Green 40.6%, Reform UK 28.7%, Labour 25.4%. Turnout 47.5%.
Full analysis ->More for Gorton and Denton: Ward map explorer|Turnout map
Results table
| Date | Constituency | Held by | Winner | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Feb 2026 | Gorton and Denton | Labour | Green | 47.5% |
Frequently asked
How are UK by-elections triggered?
A by-election is held to fill a vacant seat in the House of Commons. Vacancies arise when an MP dies, resigns, is disqualified, or is expelled. The Speaker issues the writ for the by-election, usually within three months of the vacancy.
When is the next UK by-election?
There are no UK Parliament by-elections currently scheduled. This page is updated when a vacancy is announced and a writ is issued.
How does PollCheck forecast by-elections?
PollCheck combines national and regional polling, the constituency's 2024 General Election result, ward-level demographics, and constituency-specific polling where available. By-election models also account for typical mid-term swing patterns and protest-vote effects against the governing party.
How accurate are PollCheck by-election predictions?
By-elections are more volatile than General Elections because turnout is lower and local factors can dominate. PollCheck publishes a central projection alongside scenario ranges. For Gorton and Denton 2026 the central projection had Green at 31.6%, against an actual result of 40.6% - a reminder that ranges, not point estimates, are the right basis for planning.