This section attempts to provide accurate seat predictions by applying the Uniform Swing Method (UNS) to regions, rather than the whole of Great Britain. For example, by applying London polling to London constituencies, we can get a more realistic result than by applying a GB-wide poll to each London constituency.

How this map works:

• GB (All GB) shows combined results from all regions, providing an overall view of seat predictions across Great Britain.
• Regional polling data is aggregated from multiple pollsters (YouGov, More in Common, Find Out Now, Survation, and others) to calculate regional trends using a weighted 7-poll moving average.
• Weighting methodology: Regional polling averages are calculated using sample-size weighting within a 7-poll moving window:
  • Sample size weighting: Polls with larger sample sizes are given greater weight, as they have lower margins of error and are statistically more reliable.
  • 7-poll window: Only the most recent 7 polls are included in the average. As new polls are added, older polls naturally drop out of the window, ensuring the average reflects current trends.
  When multiple polls are published on the same date, they are combined using sample-size-weighted averages before being included in the moving average calculation.
• Important note on cross-tab data: Regional polling data from cross-tabs (subsamples of national polls) can be less reliable than dedicated regional polls due to smaller sample sizes and higher margins of error. Results should be interpreted with caution, especially for smaller regions or parties with lower support.
• Selecting a region displays:
  • Regional polling trends graph (7-poll moving average)
  • Seat predictions for that region with changes vs GE2024
  • Interactive constituency map showing projected winners and vote share swings
• Click on any constituency to see detailed vote shares, projected results, and comparisons with GE2024.