Path to No10
Interactive seat and constituency projections showing the path to parliamentary majority
Interactive UK Constituency Map - Regional Polling Data
This interactive map uses a regional approach in an attempt for greater accuracy, rather than applying national polling uniformly across all constituencies. Hover over any constituency to see detailed vote shares and predictions.
How Regional Data Works:
Regional Seat Totals
How This Works
The interactive graph shows predicted seat counts for each major UK political party over time, based on polling data and a seat projection model.
Methodology:
- Base Data: The model starts with the 2024 General Election results at the constituency level for all major parties.
- Poll Integration: For each poll, national-level swings are calculated for each party compared to the 2024 results.
- Swing Application: The Universal National Swing (UNS) methodology is used, applying the national swings uniformly to each constituency's 2024 results.
- Seat Allocation: The party with the highest adjusted vote share in each constituency is awarded the seat, using the First Past the Post system.
The graph shows the seat projections for each party over time, using a 7-point rolling average to reduce noise from individual polls.
Limitations: The UNS method is transparent , but does not account for local factors or tactical voting, and may overstate the impact of national swings in some areas.