Gorton and Denton By-Election

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Election Date

26 Feb 2026

Thursday

Latest Poll

Reform 30%

Find Out Now

GE2024 Result

Labour 51%

Majority: 36.7%

Candidates

9 Confirmed

Related: Seat Calculator | Path to No. 10 | National Polls

What is this by-election?

A by-election is held when a parliamentary seat becomes vacant between general elections. Gorton and Denton's seat became vacant after Andrew Gwynne resigned as MP in January 2026, following his suspension from Labour in 2025.

Why it matters: Labour, Reform and Greens are all competitive in this seat.

Key Dates

Postal vote deadline 12 Feb 2026

Election day 26 Feb 2026

Results expected Early hours 27 Feb

PollCheck Projection

GRN

REF

TOSS-UP

Green (57%) vs Reform UK (43%)

Scenario Analysis

Scenario	Green	Reform
With tactical voting + WPB transfer	32.6% (57%) 27–38%	31.8% (43%) 26–37%
Without tactical voting + WPB transfer	30.0% (44%) 24–36%	30.7% (56%) 25–36%

How to read: 32.6% = projected vote share · (57%) = chance of winning · 27–38% = likely range

Key Factors

WPB withdrawal – Workers Party not standing. Green expected to capture protest vote
Tactical voting – If Lab/LD voters switch to block Reform, Green gains
Elderly turnout – By-elections skew older, which slightly benefits Reform/Con

Important Caveats

WPB transfer assumption included in both scenarios (Workers Party not standing)
No reliable constituency polls
Both parties have viable paths to victory

Methodology

Last updated: 2 Feb 2026

MRP baseline + by-election adjustments. Includes WPB transfer (protest vote to Green), elderly turnout composition shift, and tactical voting model. 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations for uncertainty.

The Polls

By-election specific polling for this constituency

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General Election Polling Context

National polls suggest different patterns than the by-election specific polling above. UNS projections show this as a Labour hold, but by-elections often diverge significantly from national trends.

GB Poll Average (UNS)

North West Regional

The Candidates

9 confirmed candidates standing in this by-election

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Latest News

Campaign updates and developments

The Constituency

Demographics and background on Gorton and Denton

2024 General Election by Ward

Estimated vote share in each ward (Britain Elects/State of the Nation)

Ward Demographics (Census 2021)

How to Vote

Information for Gorton and Denton residents

Am I eligible?

You can vote if you're registered, 18+ on election day, and a British, Irish, or qualifying Commonwealth citizen living in the constituency.

Photo ID required

You must bring photo ID to vote. Accepted: passport, driving licence, Blue Badge, Voter Authority Certificate, and others.

Polling hours

Polling stations open 7am to 10pm on Thursday 26 February 2026. Your polling station is on your poll card.

Register to vote

Not registered? Visit gov.uk/register-to-vote by 11 February 2026.

By-Election Background

Previous MP: —

Party: —

—

Historic Election Results

Results from the last 4 general elections

GE2024 Detailed Results

Full breakdown and marginality analysis

Data Sources

Election results: House of Commons Library, Electoral Commission

Polling data: Find Out Now, Britain Predicts, various pollsters

Demographics: Census 2021, ONS

Projections: PollCheck methodology (UNS and regional sub-samples)

This page is updated regularly. Last updated: January 2026. For press enquiries, contact @poll_checker.