Latest UK Polling - Westminster Voting Intention

PollCheck tracks the latest UK voting intention polls daily using a 7-poll moving average. The tracker shows current standings for Reform UK, Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrats, Greens, and other parties based on data from YouGov, Opinium, Survation, and other major UK pollsters.

A 7-poll moving average smooths out short-term fluctuations in polling data by averaging the results of the seven most recent polls. This helps identify underlying trends and reduces the impact of outliers, providing a more stable view of voting intentions over time.

UK polls show vote share but due to the first-past-the-post system, seats don't directly match vote percentages. PollCheck provides seat projections using MRP demographic modelling, applying poll changes to each constituency's 2024 General Election result. Try our Demographic Swingometer for full constituency-level projections.

Poll accuracy varies depending on methodology, sample size, and timing. Most reputable UK pollsters have a margin of error of around 3-4 percentage points. Aggregate polling (like 7-poll averages) tends to be more accurate than individual polls. Historical accuracy can be viewed on our Pollster Check page.

The margin of error tells you how much a poll result might differ from the true population value due to random sampling. For example, if a party polls at 30% with a MOE of plus or minus 3%, the true support likely falls between 27% and 33%.

Larger samples produce smaller margins of error. A poll of 1,000 people has a MOE of about plus or minus 3.1%, while a poll of 2,000 has a MOE of about plus or minus 2.2%.

Major UK pollsters release new polls several times per week. PollCheck updates its data daily when new polls are published. The 7-poll moving average is automatically recalculated as new polling data becomes available.