Latest UK Political Polls - Westminster Voting Intentions
Latest 7-Poll Average
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Current 7 poll average
All values use a 7-point moving average where available.
As of 12 February 2026, the PollCheck 7-poll moving average shows Reform UK leading on 29.7%, ahead of Labour on 19.3% and Conservatives on 19.1%. The Greens on 14.1% and Liberal Democrats on 12.3%.
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Party Support Swings
Based on latest poll
Swing vs 2024 GE (GB)
| Party | 2024 GE Share (GB) | Current Poll Share | Swing |
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Last 15 Polls
| Date | Pollster | Sample Size | MOE | Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Lib Dems | Greens | SNP | PC | Others |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is a 7-poll moving average?
A 7-poll moving average smooths out short-term fluctuations in polling data by averaging the results of the seven most recent polls. This helps identify underlying trends and reduces the impact of outliers, providing a more stable view of voting intentions over time.
How do I interpret polling trends?
Polling trends show the direction of party support over time. An upward trend indicates increasing support, while a downward trend shows declining support. Look at the 7-poll moving average for a clearer picture of underlying trends, and consider individual polls in context of the overall pattern.
Which parties are included in UK polls?
UK political polls typically include major parties: Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrats, Reform UK, Green Party, and Scottish National Party (SNP). Polls may also include Plaid Cymru, UK Independence Party, and other regional or smaller parties depending on the pollster and scope.
How often are UK polls updated?
Major UK pollsters release new polls several times per week. PollCheck updates its data daily when new polls are published. The 7-poll moving average is automatically recalculated as new polling data becomes available, ensuring you always see the most current trends.
How accurate are UK political polls?
Poll accuracy varies depending on methodology, sample size, timing, and pollster. Most reputable UK pollsters have a margin of error of around 3-4 percentage points. Aggregate polling (like 7-poll averages) tends to be more accurate than individual polls. Historical accuracy can be viewed on our Pollster Check page.
What is margin of error (MOE)?
The margin of error (MOE) tells you how much a poll result might differ from the true population value due to random sampling. For example, if a party polls at 30% with a MOE of ±3%, the true support likely falls between 27% and 33%.
The 95% confidence interval means that if the same poll were conducted 100 times, approximately 95 of those polls would produce results within the margin of error of the true value. It's a measure of statistical certainty, not a guarantee.
Larger samples produce smaller margins of error. A poll of 1,000 people has a MOE of about ±3.1%, while a poll of 2,000 has a MOE of about ±2.2%.