Poll Based Seat Calculator
Use this GB election seat calculator to turn current GB polling into projected Westminster seats.
Westminster Seat Trend Tracker
Track how seat projections have changed over time using the latest polling data and UNS methodology
All values use a 7-point moving average. Projections based on UNS methodology.
Select a Poll for Seat Projections
Click on any poll below to see the seat predictions based on that poll's data
Seat Projections
Based on latest polling data
Reform UK
Labour
Conservative
Liberal Democrats
SNP
Others
Green
Plaid Cymru
Interactive Constituency Map
Constituency results based on selected poll
Seat Changes
Comparison with GE 2024 Results
| Party | 2024 GE Seats | Current Prediction | Change |
|---|
Methodology
How our seat predictions are calculated
Our seat calculator uses a Uniform National Swing (UNS) model. The process involves:
- Base Data: 2024 General Election results for 632 constituencies (excluding Northern Ireland)
- Polling Input: Latest poll data in percentage terms
- Swing Calculation: Difference between 2024 GE vote share and current polling
- Seat Allocation: Applying swings to each constituency to determine winners via FPTP
Note: This model assumes uniform national swing and does not account for regional variations, tactical voting, or local factors that may influence individual constituency results.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does the seat calculator work?
The seat calculator uses uniform national swing methodology to project Westminster seats based on polling data. It applies the poll's vote share changes uniformly across all constituencies, comparing them to the 2024 General Election results to predict which party would win each seat.
Which polls are used for seat predictions?
You can select from recent polls published by major UK pollsters including YouGov, Find Out Now, Opinium, More in Common, and others. The calculator displays polls from the past few weeks, allowing you to see seat projections based on different polling data.
How accurate are seat projections?
Seat projections are estimates based on uniform national swing methodology. Accuracy depends on poll quality, timing relative to elections, and local factors not captured by uniform swing. Projections become more accurate closer to election dates and should be viewed as estimates, not guarantees.
Can I customize the seat calculations?
Yes, PollCheck offers both poll-based calculators and a custom seat calculator where you can input your own polling numbers. The custom calculator allows you to experiment with different vote share scenarios and see how they would translate into Westminster seats.
How often are seat predictions updated?
Seat predictions are updated whenever new polls are released and added to our database, typically several times per week. The calculator automatically includes the most recent polls, so you can always see projections based on the latest polling data.
What is uniform national swing?
Uniform national swing (UNS) is a method that applies the same vote share change to every constituency. If Labour gains 5% nationally, we add 5% to Labour's vote share in every seat, then determine the winner. This is a simplified model that doesn't account for local factors, tactical voting, or regional variations.