Seat Calculator
Parliamentary seat predictions based on current polling data
Select a Poll for Seat Predictions
Click on any poll below to see the seat predictions based on that poll's data
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Seat Predictions
Based on latest polling data
Reform UK
273
Seats predicted
Labour
194
Seats predicted
Conservative
39
Seats predicted
Liberal Democrats
79
Seats predicted
SNP
25
Seats predicted
Others
12
Seats predicted
Green
6
Seats predicted
Plaid Cymru
4
Seats predicted
Constituency Margins
Closest and widest margins based on latest poll
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Seat Changes
Comparison with GE 2024 Results
| Party | 2024 GE Seats | Current Prediction | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reform UK | 5 | 273 | +268 |
| Labour | 411 | 194 | -217 |
| Conservative | 121 | 39 | -82 |
| Liberal Democrats | 72 | 79 | +7 |
| SNP | 9 | 25 | +16 |
| Green | 4 | 6 | +2 |
| Plaid Cymru | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Others | 6 | 12 | +6 |
Methodology
How our seat predictions are calculated
Our seat calculator uses a Uniform National Swing (UNS) model. The process involves:
- Base Data: 2024 General Election results for 632 constituencies (excluding Northern Ireland)
- Polling Input: Latest poll data in percentage terms
- Swing Calculation: Difference between 2024 GE vote share and current polling
- Seat Allocation: Applying swings to each constituency to determine winners via FPTP
Note: This model assumes uniform national swing and does not account for regional variations, tactical voting, or local factors that may influence individual constituency results.