Poll Based Seat Calculator
Use this GB election seat calculator to turn current GB polling into projected Westminster seats.
Westminster Seat Trend Tracker
Track how seat projections have changed over time using the latest polling data and our demographic model
All values use a 7-point moving average. Projections based on demographic regression model.
Select a Poll for Seat Projections
Click on any poll below to see the seat predictions based on that poll's data
Seat Projections
Based on latest polling data
Reform UK
Labour
Conservative
Liberal Democrats
SNP
Others
Green
Plaid Cymru
Seat Changes
Comparison with GE 2024 Results
| Party | 2024 GE Seats | Current Prediction | Change |
|---|
Methodology
How our seat predictions are calculated
Our seat calculator uses a demographic regression model (MRP-based swingometer). The process involves:
- Base Data: MRP demographic model for 632 constituencies (excluding Northern Ireland)
- Polling Input: Latest poll data in percentage terms
- Vote Sensitivity: Each constituency has per-party sensitivity multipliers reflecting local demographics
- Seat Allocation: Applying demographic-weighted swings to determine winners via FPTP
Note: This model accounts for demographic variation across constituencies but does not capture tactical voting or candidate-specific local factors.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does the seat calculator work?
The seat calculator uses a demographic regression model (MRP-based swingometer) to project Westminster seats. It applies poll vote share changes to each constituency using demographic-weighted sensitivity multipliers, producing more accurate results than uniform national swing.
Which polls are used for seat predictions?
You can select from recent polls published by major UK pollsters including YouGov, Find Out Now, Opinium, More in Common, and others. The calculator displays polls from the past few weeks, allowing you to see seat projections based on different polling data.
How accurate are seat projections?
Seat projections are estimates based on our demographic regression model. Accuracy depends on poll quality, timing relative to elections, and local factors. The model accounts for demographic variation across constituencies but should be viewed as estimates, not guarantees.
Can I customize the seat calculations?
Yes, PollCheck offers the Demographic Swingometer where you can set your own vote shares and adjust turnout by demographic group. It uses a demographic regression model to show how each constituency would respond, rather than applying the same swing everywhere. You can also adjust tactical voting levels.
How often are seat predictions updated?
Seat predictions are updated whenever new polls are released and added to our database, typically several times per week. The calculator automatically includes the most recent polls, so you can always see projections based on the latest polling data.
How does the demographic model differ from uniform national swing?
Uniform national swing (UNS) applies the same vote change to every constituency. Our demographic model uses MRP-derived vote sensitivity multipliers per constituency, so a 5% national swing for a party will have different effects depending on local demographics. This captures regional and demographic variation that UNS misses.