LSOA-level Census 2021 demographics with constituency result and ward-level estimates
Constituency figures are the official result. Ward breakdowns are model estimates derived from the constituency result using Census demographics. No ward-level counts were published.
Official result (26 Feb 2026)
Turnout 47.6%. Green gain from Labour. Margin: 4,402 votes (12.0pp)
Colour LSOAs by
Young %20%46%
Ward breakdown
Methodology
Constituency result
The overall vote shares are the official result from the count on 26 February 2026. Hannah Spencer (Green) won with 40.7% on a 47.6% turnout, gaining the seat from Labour by a margin of 4,402 votes.
How the ward estimates work
Official results are only published for the constituency as a whole - there are no separate ward-level counts for by-elections. To estimate how each ward voted, we break down the constituency result using a blend of three sources:
Our demographic model (65% of the blend) - a nationwide model that uses Census data (age, ethnicity, religion, education and more) to estimate how different types of area are likely to vote. It was calibrated against the 2024 General Election results.
Omnisis ward poll (20%) - a poll of 452 voters across the constituency (20 Feb 2026) that asked voting intention by ward.
Opinium postcode poll (15%) - a poll of 339 likely voters (16-24 Feb 2026) with results broken down by postcode, which we mapped to wards.
We combine these three sources, weighting them as above, to get an initial ward-by-ward picture. Then we adjust all the ward figures so they add up exactly to the actual constituency result. The ward estimates shown here are the central projection - the scenario explorer shows the full range of uncertainty.
Map demographics
The map shows Census 2021 data for 63 small areas (LSOAs) across the constituency. Each area covers roughly 1,200 to 2,900 people. You can colour the map by:
Age - share of residents aged 15-34 (young) or 65+ (older)
Religion - Muslim, Christian, no religion, or other faiths
Ethnicity - white, Asian, Black, or other ethnic groups
Education - share with a degree-level qualification
Boundaries and demographic data come from the ONS (Office for National Statistics) Census 2021 release.
What to bear in mind
Ward estimates are modelled, not counted - they show the likely pattern across areas rather than exact figures.
Census 2021 data is now several years old and may not perfectly reflect today's population, especially in areas with high turnover.
Both polls had relatively small samples (339 and 452 voters), so the ward-level margin of error is wide.
By-elections are shaped by local factors - candidate profiles, campaign focus, protest voting - that no model can fully capture.