Turnout in 2024 was significantly lower than other recent elections, and at the same time the emergence of Reform is changing historic patterns. This article explores who benefits from low turnout, the impact of Reform and turnout, and how we can adapt modelling
Turnout in the 2024 General Election
Turnout in the 2024 GE was low - it had the second lowest turnout of registered voters since 1928. [Source: House of Commons Library]
In this article, we’ll concentrate on the effects on turnout since 2010.
Firstly, we see 2024 was significantly lower than other recent elections, with registered voter turnout at 59.7%.
Figure 1. Turnout over time (2010–2024)
Who benefits most from low turnout?
Traditionally, it’s been said that lower turnout benefits the Conservatives - looking at 2010–2019 within constituency results, there is a small inverse relationship between turnout and vote share suggesting this.
This is often attributed to their voter base of high propensity voters - often pensioners who are known to always vote.
Figure 2. Party turnout effects (2010–2019, fixed effects): Within the same constituencies over time, bars show vote share change (pp) per +1% turnout (associations, not causal).
In 2024 the pattern is clear and reversed: higher turnout helps Conservatives and hurts Labour.
We also see that low turnout benefits Reform, who were missing in the 2010–2019 analysis.
Figure 3. Party turnout effects (2024, controlled): Bars show the change in vote share (percentage points) per +1% turnout, controlling for region, seat marginality, and fragmentation (Reform/Green).
Regional turnout patterns
Let’s start by examining the North / South turnout divide. Although the South has had higher turnout than the North since 2010, they move in very close unison in regards to turnout trends.
In this context, North / South are defined as:
North = North East + North West;
South = South East + South West + London
Figure 4. Turnout in the North and South (2010–2024)
For the full picture, we also look at each region individually.
Figure 5. Regional turnout trends (2010–2024)
Overall, as turnout fell across all regions, the North / South divide also became greater. Northern turnout fell more sharply, leading to a 6.0% turnout differential - the highest in the time frame.
Impact of Reform UK by region
Reform had a much stronger performance in the North, where they were primarily competing with Labour, vs the Conservatives who were competing more strongly with the Lib Dems for Southern seats.
Figure 6. Reform UK impact by region (2024)
What we can take away then, is that in 2024 the performance of Reform helped to invert the traditional high / low turnout advantages.
The takeaway from 2024 is that Reform’s impact turned the traditional high/low turnout advantages upside down. A rise in turnout would likely have boosted Southern turnout more, giving Conservative and Lib Dem votes a bigger lift than Labour’s. Should turnout drop even lower, Labour and Reform would gain ground, as the focus shifts toward Northern seats with lower overall participation.
The effect of turnout on polling and modelling
When doing seat predictions from polls, many sites (such as this one), use Universal National Swing, which is based on constituency results from 2024 - which had historically low turnout.
We can improve predictions by considering different turnout scenarios - for instance below, we make seat predictions based on a recent poll - an Opinium poll released 6th September 2025:
| Party | % Support |
|---|---|
| Reform | 30.0% |
| Labour | 23.0% |
| Conservatives | 18.0% |
| Liberal Democrats | 12.0% |
| Greens | 10.0% |
| SNP | 2.0% |
The 2024 baseline in the plot is what the model generates and is displayed on the website.
We see how different turnout levels would affect this same poll: at the highest turnout level of 68.6% (2017), Reform loses 6 seats, and Labour 21, while Lib Dems and Conservatives each gain seats.
Figure 7. Seat projections under different turnout scenarios
We should then be careful when comparing polls to the 2024 GE, as the turnout was significantly lower and the effect of Reform may not yet be fully understood. Modelling against a range of turnout scenarios would help make predictions more accurate.