Latest UK Opinion Polls - Westminster Voting Intention
7-poll moving average - Loading...
Track the latest UK opinion polls and Westminster voting intention, updated daily. PollCheck's 7-poll moving average draws from every major UK pollster including YouGov, Survation, Opinium, More in Common and JL Partners.
As of 20 May 2026, the PollCheck 7-poll moving average shows Reform UK leading on 27.9%, ahead of Conservatives on 18.3% and Labour on 18.1%. The Greens on 14.0% and Liberal Democrats on 13.3%.
7-poll moving average. Change vs 7 and 30 days ago.
Lines show a 7-poll moving average to smooth out individual poll noise. Toggle "Raw" to see each poll plotted directly.
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DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN
Sample-weighted 7-poll moving average from pollster crosstabs. Bar widths show party vote share within each group. Loading...
Methodology
Each row is a sample-size-weighted 7-poll moving average of the age crosstabs from each pollster. Raw pollster bins (e.g. 30-39) are mapped to standard bins (25-34, 35-49) using overlap weighting, so a poll spanning two standard bins contributes proportionally to each.
Crosstab estimates come from sub-samples of larger polls rather than primary samples, so they are inherently more volatile than headline voting intention - particularly for the youngest and oldest age groups, where sample sizes are smallest. Read these as indicative trends rather than precise measurements.
Each row is a sample-size-weighted 7-poll moving average of the regional crosstabs from each pollster. Regions are taken directly from each pollster's reported breakdown, with no bin remapping.
Regional sub-samples are smaller than the GB-wide samples behind the headline figures - especially for Wales, the North East and Scotland - so estimates carry wider error bands than the national 7-poll average. Read these as indicative trends rather than precise measurements.
Tap a poll to see the full breakdown and how it compares with the previous survey from the same pollster.
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- Reform UK Polls - Trends & Demographics
- Labour Polls - Trends & Demographics
- Conservative Polls - Trends & Demographics
- Green Party Polls - Trends & Demographics
- Liberal Democrat Polls - Trends & Demographics
- Latest Polls by Pollster - YouGov, Survation, Opinium, Ipsos, More in Common
- Demographic Swingometer - Constituency Seat Projections
- Poll-based Seat Calculator
- 2026 Local Election Projections - 136 Councils
- Council Control Map
- Scottish Westminster Polls
- Welsh Polls
- Pollster Track Records
- Leader Approval Ratings
Who is leading in the UK polls?
PollCheck tracks the latest UK voting intention polls daily using a 7-poll moving average. The tracker shows current standings for Reform UK, Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrats, Greens, and other parties based on data from YouGov, Opinium, Survation, and other major UK pollsters.
What is a 7-poll moving average?
A 7-poll moving average smooths out short-term fluctuations in polling data by averaging the results of the seven most recent polls. This helps identify underlying trends and reduces the impact of outliers, providing a more stable view of voting intentions over time.
How do UK polls translate into seats?
UK polls show vote share but due to the first-past-the-post system, seats don't directly match vote percentages. PollCheck provides seat projections using MRP demographic modelling, applying poll changes to each constituency's 2024 General Election result. Try our Demographic Swingometer for full constituency-level projections.
How accurate are UK political polls?
Poll accuracy varies depending on methodology, sample size, and timing. Most reputable UK pollsters have a margin of error of around 3-4 percentage points. Aggregate polling (like 7-poll averages) tends to be more accurate than individual polls. Historical accuracy can be viewed on our Pollster Check page.
What is margin of error (MOE)?
The margin of error tells you how much a poll result might differ from the true population value due to random sampling. For example, if a party polls at 30% with a MOE of plus or minus 3%, the true support likely falls between 27% and 33%.
Larger samples produce smaller margins of error. A poll of 1,000 people has a MOE of about plus or minus 3.1%, while a poll of 2,000 has a MOE of about plus or minus 2.2%.
How often are UK polls updated?
Major UK pollsters release new polls several times per week. PollCheck updates its data daily when new polls are published. The 7-poll moving average is automatically recalculated as new polling data becomes available.
Which party do young voters support in UK polls?
Pollster crosstabs show the Greens consistently leading among voters aged 18-24, with Labour in second. Conservative support is lowest in this age band, while Reform UK polls competitively across all age groups.
See the Demographic Breakdown section above for the latest 7-poll moving average by age, drawn from sample-weighted crosstabs across major UK pollsters.
Who do older voters support in UK polls?
Pollster crosstabs consistently show the Conservatives and Reform UK leading among voters aged 65 and over, with Labour and the Greens polling weakest in this age band.
The age-group breakdown is updated daily on the Demographic Breakdown section above, drawn from the 7-poll moving average of pollster crosstabs.
How does UK polling vary by region?
PollCheck aggregates regional crosstabs from major pollsters into a sample-weighted 7-poll moving average across the 11 GB regions. Reform UK currently leads in most English regions outside London, where Labour remains the largest party. Scotland is dominated by the SNP and Plaid Cymru polls strongly in Wales.
See the Demographic Breakdown section above for current regional standings.