Breaking - By-Election
Makerfield By-Election
North West England · Date to be confirmed ·
Why this by-election
Key dates
PollCheck nowcast
Lead
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Win probability
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As of
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Candidates
Candidates will be listed here once parties announce their selections. The nomination period opens after the Speaker issues the writ. PollCheck will update this section as candidacies are confirmed.
Polls
No constituency polling has been published for the Makerfield by-election yet. PollCheck will update this section as polls are released.
2024 General Election result
Winner
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Majority
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Turnout
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Electorate
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The Constituency
Demographics and background on Makerfield
2024 General Election by Ward
Estimated vote share in each ward (Britain Elects)
Interactive Ward Map
2024 General Election results and Census 2021 demographics by ward. Use the buttons at the top to colour the map by vote share or demographics. Toggle between Ward and LSOA views for more granular data. Click any area for a detailed breakdown.
The areas shown are the eight local-government wards that make up the Makerfield parliamentary constituency. Combined, they match the official 2024 General Election result for Makerfield to within rounding.
Sources: 2024 General Election ward estimates - Britain Elects. Census 2021 - ONS. Makerfield Westminster boundary - ONS, July 2024.
Ward Demographics (Census 2021)
Local elections signal - the wards in Makerfield, 1 May 2026
Voters in the eight wards that make up Makerfield went to the polls less than two weeks before this by-election was triggered. Reform UK won every single one.
| Ward | Reform | Lab | Con | Green | LD | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abram | 56.1% | 24.2% | 4.5% | 11.3% | 4.0% | - |
| Ashton-in-Makerfield South | 46.4% | 32.5% | 8.4% | 12.7% | - | - |
| Bryn with Ashton-in-Makerfield North | 52.2% | 24.1% | 6.8% | 11.8% | 5.2% | - |
| Hindley | 52.3% | 21.4% | 4.0% | 10.7% | 3.6% | 8.1% |
| Hindley Green | 52.3% | 32.7% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 3.0% | - |
| Orrell | 39.9% | 24.2% | 19.4% | 11.6% | 4.9% | - |
| Winstanley | 49.7% | 31.0% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 4.6% | - |
| Worsley Mesnes | 50.9% | 25.2% | 3.0% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 8.1% |
| Aggregate (vote-weighted, 28,569 votes) | 49.8% | 26.9% | 7.4% | 10.4% | 3.6% | 1.9% |
What this means for the by-election
- Reform leads Labour by 22.9 percentage points across the constituency aggregate. At GE2024 the same area was a Labour-Reform marginal with Labour 13.4pp ahead. The local swing on the same boundaries runs approximately 18 points from Labour to Reform.
- Labour did not win a single ward. Its strongest residual support sits in Hindley Green (32.7%), Ashton-in-Makerfield South (32.5%) and Winstanley (31.0%) - traditional union-and-industrial Labour territory. Its floor was in Hindley at 21.4%.
- The Conservatives barely register across most of the seat (3-9% in seven wards), with one exception: Orrell (19.4%) - the only ward where the Tory vote was meaningful.
- Orrell is the one ward where a unified non-Reform vote (Lab 24.2 + Con 19.4 + Grn 11.6 + LD 4.9 = ~60%) plausibly beats Reform on 39.9%, if combined - though local elections are not parliamentary contests.
- Greens averaged 10.4% across the seat - a tactical-vote pool that could matter at a by-election if Labour can corral it.
- Independent and minor-party support sits at 8.1% in two wards (Hindley, and Worsley Mesnes where Independent Danny Cooke took 272 votes). Named-independent support typically does not transfer to a parliamentary contest.
Caveats. Local elections have lower turnout than parliamentary contests and Reform fielded a full slate; both factors typically widen the local lead vs a by-election. Andy Burnham's personal vote, mayoral majorities of 60%+ across Greater Manchester (63.4% at the 2024 mayoral election), is the strongest counter-factor not captured in these ward numbers. The baseline is nonetheless stark: on the most recent test of opinion in the same geography, Reform UK would start the by-election as clear favourites.
Andy Burnham and a return to Westminster
Andy Burnham has served as Mayor of Greater Manchester since 8 May 2017, and was re-elected for a third term with 63.4% of the vote in 2024. Before becoming Mayor he was Labour MP for Leigh from 2001 to 2017, holding Cabinet positions including Secretary of State for Health under Gordon Brown. In recent months Burnham has been widely speculated by the media as a potential candidate in a future Labour leadership election to succeed Keir Starmer. A Survation poll of Labour members for LabourList, conducted 13-14 May 2026, found 61% would back Burnham in a hypothetical head-to-head against Starmer, with Starmer on 28% and the remainder undecided. To stand for the Labour leadership a candidate must hold a parliamentary seat. On 24 January 2026 Burnham applied to stand as Labour's candidate in the Gorton and Denton by-election. His candidacy was blocked the following day by an 8 to 1 vote of Labour's National Executive Committee, including Keir Starmer. The Greens went on to gain the seat. Simons, announcing his resignation on 14 May 2026, cited standing aside to allow Burnham to contest Makerfield.
Background - the constituency
How to vote in the Makerfield by-election
Polls open at 07:00 and close at 22:00 on polling day. To vote in person you must be registered and bring an accepted form of photo ID. Register to vote (gov.uk) · Accepted voter ID (Electoral Commission) · Find your polling station