1 March 2026
Analysis
What actually happened in Gorton and Denton
The Greens have won Gorton & Denton. Not narrowly, but convincingly, beyond all estimates. Hannah Spencer took 40.
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What actually happened in Gorton and Denton - Analysis
The Greens have won Gorton & Denton. Not narrowly, but convincingly, beyond all estimates. Hannah Spencer took 40. 7% of the vote, beating Reform by over 12 points and Labour by more than 15. For a party that managed 13. 2% here in July 2024, that’s a historic result. This post looks at the result, how the polls did, where our projection landed, and what I got wrong. Subscribe now The Result The Greens surged from fourth place at the general election to a comfortable first, gaining 27. 5 points on their 2024 showing. Reform climbed 14. 7 points to second. Labour collapsed by 25. 3 points, shedding more than half their vote share from just 20 months ago. The Conservatives and Lib Dems were practically wiped out, both finishing under 2%. Turnout came in at 47. 6%, almost identical to the general election figure of 47. 8% and well above our expected range of 33-43%. The margin was 4,402 votes, or 12 points. This wasn’t a three-way fight as many expected, in the end the only real battle was for second place. The combined Green+Reform vote here was 42. 1% higher than at the GE. How did this look locally? A model estimation of ward performance: Greens likely broke 50% in Levenshulme, also the most populous ward. This would have allowed them to bank a good margin of votes - and was also Reform’s weakest ward Reform probably won at least two wards outright, but by relatively small percentages. These are also the wards with smallest populations The issue for Reform was always that there simply weren’t that many votes on the table that appeared to lean their way, and they were overwhelmed by the Green leaning population centres How the Polls Did Three polls were conducted during the campaign.
This analysis examines UK political polling trends, seat projections, and election dynamics. PollCheck provides comprehensive coverage of Westminster elections, Scottish Parliament elections, and Welsh Senedd elections, tracking polling data from major UK pollsters including YouGov, Find Out Now, Opinium, More in Common, and others.
Our analysis uses uniform national swing (UNS) methodology to project seat outcomes based on current polling data. We provide free tools including seat calculators, interactive maps, and detailed polling trend visualizations to help understand UK political dynamics.