19 January 2026
Analysis
Weekly Polling Wrap - Week 3 2026
It’s been a very busy polling week, with fresh data released across Westminster, Holyrood, and the Senedd, as well as two defections and council delays Thanks for reading! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. Westminster The Polls This week saw polling return to full swing, with a glut of Westminster polling.
The full analysis, including detailed charts, methodology, and comprehensive data visualizations, is available on Substack.
Read full article on Substack
Related Analysis
For more polling analysis and seat projections, explore our latest polling trends, use our seat calculator, or browse all articles.
Weekly Polling Wrap - Week 3 2026 - Analysis
It’s been a very busy polling week, with fresh data released across Westminster, Holyrood, and the Senedd, as well as two defections and council delays Thanks for reading! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. Westminster The Polls This week saw polling return to full swing, with a glut of Westminster polling. There were national voting intention polls released by Survation, Techne, Find Out Now , More in Common, YouGov, and Freshwater Strategy, alongside a new MRP. Notably, Find Out Now released both a standard Westminster voting intention poll and an MRP in partnership with Electoral Calculus, allowing a direct comparison between headline vote share and projected seat outcomes. Reform UK again topped the majority of polls, with results ranging from the mid-20s to low-30s. The 24% YouGov result was Reform’s lowest polling figure since April 2025, though it stands apart from the rest of this week’s polling. Special Focus: Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now MRP A new MRP from Electoral Calculus, using Find Out Now data and a 5,500 sample, places Reform UK on 31% and projects them as the largest party, even when accounting for tactical voting. Labour trails on 17%, with the Conservatives on 21%, while the Greens are projected to more than 10x their seats to 52. Westminster Voting Intention (Range) Reform UK: 24-33% Labour: 15-21% Conservative: 19-21% Liberal Democrats: 11-16% Greens: 11-18% Current Westminster Seat Projection Reform UK: 308 seats Labour: 113 seats Liberal Democrats: 73 seats Conservative: 71 seats SNP: 34 seats Greens: 18 seats Others: 13 seats Plaid Cymru: 4 seats Holyrood There were two Holyrood polls this week, as the devolved elections start to heat up Holyrood Constituency Polling (Top 3) Norstat SNP: 35. 0% (+1) Labour: 19.
This analysis examines UK political polling trends, seat projections, and election dynamics. PollCheck provides comprehensive coverage of Westminster elections, Scottish Parliament elections, and Welsh Senedd elections, tracking polling data from major UK pollsters including YouGov, Find Out Now, Opinium, More in Common, and others.
Our analysis uses uniform national swing (UNS) methodology to project seat outcomes based on current polling data. We provide free tools including seat calculators, interactive maps, and detailed polling trend visualizations to help understand UK political dynamics.