Weekly Polling Wrap - Week 2 2026

Weekly Polling Wrap - Week 2 2026 - Analysis

This week delivered a full return to regular polling, with five national Westminster voting intention polls released. Thanks for reading! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. The Polls Reform UK topped every poll this week, ranging from 26% to 32%, and maintaining a clear lead over both Labour and the Conservatives. Labour’s position remains weak, polling between 15% and 20%, including two separate Find Out Now polls placing the party at just 15%. The Conservatives show continued volatility, reaching 23% in the More in Common poll but falling back to 17-19% elsewhere. The Liberal Democrats remain broadly static in the low-to-mid teens. The Greens ranged from 10% to 17%, showing pollsters may still be struggling to accurately capture their surge in support. Reform passed 200 all time polls led, and more than 250 consecutive days. Westminster Voting Intention (Range) Reform UK: 26-32% Labour: 15-20% Conservative: 17-23% Liberal Democrats: 12-16% Greens: 10-17% PollCheck’s rolling 7-poll model indicates the following national vote shares and projected seats: Reform UK: 30. 0% → 317 seats Labour: 17. 8% → 118 seats Conservative: 19. 5% → 64 seats Liberal Democrats: 13. 0% → 76 seats Greens: 13. 8% → 8 seats SNP: 2. 8% → 34 seats Plaid Cymru: 1. 0% → 4 seats 7-Day Change Reform UK: +1. 1% Conservative: -0. 1% Labour: -0. 4% Greens: +0. 8% Reform and the Greens are the only parties showing clear upward momentum, while Labour continues to drift lower. Approvals Keir Starmer hit a joint record low of -46 Net Approval in the latest Opinium poll Overall, he sits at -50. 3% in the 7 poll trend. Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage are visually tied at -16. 5% and -16. 6% Other news Labour MP Karl Turner threatened to resign over the Government’s pontential changes to jury trials.

This analysis examines UK political polling trends, seat projections, and election dynamics. PollCheck provides comprehensive coverage of Westminster elections, Scottish Parliament elections, and Welsh Senedd elections, tracking polling data from major UK pollsters including YouGov, Find Out Now, Opinium, More in Common, and others.

Our analysis uses uniform national swing (UNS) methodology to project seat outcomes based on current polling data. We provide free tools including seat calculators, interactive maps, and detailed polling trend visualizations to help understand UK political dynamics.