6 January 2026
Analysis
Weekly Polling wrap - Week 1 2026
Welcome to the inaugural weekly polling wrap. It is also one of the shortest, as only one poll was released this week. More in Common published their annual MRP, based on around 16,000 respondents.
The full analysis, including detailed charts, methodology, and comprehensive data visualizations, is available on Substack.
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Weekly Polling wrap - Week 1 2026 - Analysis
Welcome to the inaugural weekly polling wrap. It is also one of the shortest, as only one poll was released this week. More in Common published their annual MRP, based on around 16,000 respondents. Thanks for reading! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. The MRP shows Reform on 31%, with 381 projected seats. This would represent a substantial majority relative to their vote share, driven in part by the collapse of both Labour and the Conservatives. Under this projection, both Labour and the Conservatives fall below 100 seats. Notably, the MRP still has the Conservatives gaining seats compared to their previous position. The Liberal Democrats lose around half of their seats, leaving Reform and the Greens as the only parties making significant net gains. The MRP also examined tactical voting. It found that tactical voting by Liberal Democrat and Green voters in support of Labour could deliver an additional 46 seats. This aligns closely with the Pollcheck Tactical Seat Calculator, which shows that while 20% of Liberal Democrat voters in marginal seats backing Labour would net only around 15 seats, combined Liberal Democrat and Green tactical voting could help Labour win roughly 50 seats. Other developments Keir Starmer ended 2025 on -51 net approval in the trend - the lowest level recorded. Kemi Badenoch made a late recovery, ending the year virtually level with Nigel Farage on -16. 6. Reform begin the year averaging 28. 5%, nine points ahead of the Conservatives in second place. The Greens have slipped back from a 2025 high of 15. 7%. Further updates are expected next week, with new polling from More in Common, Find Out Now, and YouGov. Thanks for reading!
This analysis examines UK political polling trends, seat projections, and election dynamics. PollCheck provides comprehensive coverage of Westminster elections, Scottish Parliament elections, and Welsh Senedd elections, tracking polling data from major UK pollsters including YouGov, Find Out Now, Opinium, More in Common, and others.
Our analysis uses uniform national swing (UNS) methodology to project seat outcomes based on current polling data. We provide free tools including seat calculators, interactive maps, and detailed polling trend visualizations to help understand UK political dynamics.