The Red Wall Has Fallen Again: What Regional Polling Shows about Labour’s Future

The Red Wall Has Fallen Again: What Regional Polling Shows about Labour’s Future - Analysis

The main polling headlines at the moment have to do with Labour’s decline and Reform’s rise nationally - but what is the picture regionally? Polling usually splits Great Britain into 11 regions. England is divided into seven, and Scotland and Wales are each their own region. These regions are: East Midlands East of England Greater London North East England North West England Scotland South East England South West England Wales West Midlands Yorkshire and the Humber Pollcheck maps regional support by taking regional data from polls’ cross-tabs and tracking it like national polls. (Cross-tabs break down poll results to see how different groups of respondents answered a question - for example, by age, gender, region, education level, or political preference. ) There are risks with this approach, namely that cross-tab data is based on smaller samples, may not be representative, and may not be weighted. However, by looking at trends over time, even within sub-samples, we can still see meaningful movement. In the 2024 General Election, Labour came first in eight regions, and the Conservatives in three. Labour’s largest vote share was in the North East, narrowly followed by the North West and London. Since the election, Labour have lost ground across the board, while Reform - and more recently, the Greens - have gained. This trend can be seen in the heatmap below: grey pills indicate lost support, while pills in party colours indicate gains. The heatmap uses Pollcheck’s current seven-point moving average for each region, compared to support at the General Election. Current regional support by party It’s immediately apparent that Reform and the Greens have had the largest increases, with Labour and the Conservatives declining in every region. Labour have seen losses of over 20% in former strongholds such as the North West, North East, Yorkshire, and Wales.

This analysis examines UK political polling trends, seat projections, and election dynamics. PollCheck provides comprehensive coverage of Westminster elections, Scottish Parliament elections, and Welsh Senedd elections, tracking polling data from major UK pollsters including YouGov, Find Out Now, Opinium, More in Common, and others.

Our analysis uses uniform national swing (UNS) methodology to project seat outcomes based on current polling data. We provide free tools including seat calculators, interactive maps, and detailed polling trend visualizations to help understand UK political dynamics.