29 December 2025
Analysis
The 2025 Polling wrap
2025: A Year of Polling Firsts It’s been a tumultuous year of firsts that will be remembered in polling history: Reform UK led 196 polls, more than any party. For the first time, neither Labour nor the Conservatives appeared in the top two in some Westminster polls. Both Labour and the Conservatives polled below 20% in the same poll for the first time.
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The 2025 Polling wrap - Analysis
2025: A Year of Polling Firsts It’s been a tumultuous year of firsts that will be remembered in polling history: Reform UK led 196 polls, more than any party. For the first time, neither Labour nor the Conservatives appeared in the top two in some Westminster polls. Both Labour and the Conservatives polled below 20% in the same poll for the first time. Reform outpolled Labour and the Conservatives combined on three occasions. Labour fell below 20% for the first time since the 1980s, later hitting record lows of 14%. The Greens hit a new polling high of 18% and took fourth place in the polling trend. Five parties consistently polled above 10%. The year reflected the demise of the old two party system, and the rise of multi-party politics, as well as Reform and the Greens taking new places as the leading parties. Thanks for reading! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. How the Polling Landscape Changed in 2025 The polling picture today looks very different than it did on 1st January 2025. Let’s look at the top parties changes over the year. All figures in the article are based on 7 Poll Moving Averages, unless specific polls are referenced Year to Date Changes The Winners The Greens had the best year, increasing 6. 7% and overtaking the Lib Dems for a strong 4th place. Reform increased 4. 7% YTD, falling from a peak YTD increase of around 10% in June. They took the polling lead around early May and have held it since. The Losers Labour dropped 9. 2%, landing third place overall in the polling. The Conservatives dropped 4. 3% YTD, with some recovery towards the end of the year.
This analysis examines UK political polling trends, seat projections, and election dynamics. PollCheck provides comprehensive coverage of Westminster elections, Scottish Parliament elections, and Welsh Senedd elections, tracking polling data from major UK pollsters including YouGov, Find Out Now, Opinium, More in Common, and others.
Our analysis uses uniform national swing (UNS) methodology to project seat outcomes based on current polling data. We provide free tools including seat calculators, interactive maps, and detailed polling trend visualizations to help understand UK political dynamics.