27 December 2025
Analysis
Have Reform Hit Their Ceiling?
It’s posted on social media dozens of times a day - have Reform peaked? I thought it’d be interesting to look at this through the lens of a stock order book - have they peaked, or are they consolidating? Their support has been virtually static for the last 90 days, and they’ve increased their 7 point moving average only 0.
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Have Reform Hit Their Ceiling? - Analysis
It’s posted on social media dozens of times a day - have Reform peaked? I thought it’d be interesting to look at this through the lens of a stock order book - have they peaked, or are they consolidating? Their support has been virtually static for the last 90 days, and they’ve increased their 7 point moving average only 0. 1% in that time, from 30. 4% to 30. 5% However, the trend line is still pointing up. The weekly average now sits just under 30%, the 3‑month moving average is still above the 6‑month one, and both remain clear of the 12‑month trend. Reform MA support bands Looking at the events that drove Reform’s growth, there are two big ones. The 2024GE and the 2025 Local Elections, combined with the Runcorn and Helsby by-election on the same day. Reform’s support change 4 weeks before to 4 weeks after events These two events drove polling growth that held, everything else either faded quickly or simply held the existing level. It appears that Reform requires catalysts for sustained growth, the last 3 months have consolidated support well, but a jolt is needed for the next leg up to hold the 33-35% range. Where can this support come from though? Looking at regional data since June 2025, we can see which regions appear to have already hit saturation and which could grow. It could be possible that they’ve hit their ceiling in London, Scotland and the East Midlands, which are low and high support areas respectively. However areas like North East, East of England and North West could still have some growth left in them. The 2026 Local Elections should be the next large catalyst -London boroughs, South East county councils, Senedd, and Holyrood will all be up for elections.
This analysis examines UK political polling trends, seat projections, and election dynamics. PollCheck provides comprehensive coverage of Westminster elections, Scottish Parliament elections, and Welsh Senedd elections, tracking polling data from major UK pollsters including YouGov, Find Out Now, Opinium, More in Common, and others.
Our analysis uses uniform national swing (UNS) methodology to project seat outcomes based on current polling data. We provide free tools including seat calculators, interactive maps, and detailed polling trend visualizations to help understand UK political dynamics.