Senedd Polling - Welsh Parliament Voting Intention
Tracking Welsh Parliament voting intentions from all major pollsters
As of 24 March 2026, the PollCheck 5-poll moving average shows Reform UK leading on 28.2%, ahead of Plaid Cymru on 27.4% and Labour on 18.0%. The Conservatives on 10.8% and Greens on 8.2%.
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Recent polls
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Change since 2021
How voting intentions have shifted since the 2021 Senedd election (constituency vote). The 2021 election used AMS, with separate constituency and regional list votes; the 2026 election uses a single-vote D'Hondt PR system.
Swing vs 2021 constituency vote
Swing chart
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About this data
What is the Senedd (Welsh Parliament)?
The Senedd, formerly the National Assembly for Wales, is the devolved legislature of Wales. In 2026, the Senedd is expanding from 60 to 96 Members of the Senedd (MSs) and moving to a fully proportional representation (PR) system, replacing the previous Additional Member System (AMS).
How does Senedd polling differ from Westminster polling?
Senedd polling measures voting intentions for Welsh Parliament elections, which can differ from Westminster voting intentions. Welsh voters may vote differently in devolved elections. From 2026, the Senedd uses a fully proportional representation system with 96 MSs, meaning seat projections work very differently than Westminster's first-past-the-post system.
What is the new proportional representation system in Wales?
In 2026, the Senedd is moving from the Additional Member System (AMS) to a fully proportional representation system with 96 MSs. The expansion from 60 to 96 seats and the move to full PR represents the biggest change to Welsh electoral politics since devolution.
How is the polling average calculated?
The polling average shown on this page is a trailing 5-poll moving average, calculated from the most recent polls regardless of pollster. With fewer Senedd polls published compared to Westminster or Holyrood, a 5-poll window keeps the average responsive while still smoothing out noise from individual surveys.
How often are Senedd polls released?
Senedd polls are released less frequently than Westminster polls, typically monthly or quarterly unless an election is approaching. As the 7 May 2026 election draws nearer, polling frequency is increasing significantly.
Which parties compete in Senedd elections?
Major parties include Welsh Labour, Plaid Cymru, Welsh Conservatives, Welsh Liberal Democrats, Welsh Greens, and Reform UK. Polling shows support levels for each party in Senedd elections.