Over 5,000 councillors will be elected across 136 English councils on 7 May 2026. Most of these seats were last fought in 2022, during Partygate. The parties defending them face a very different electorate.
2 March 2026
Most seats up in 2026 were last fought in 2022 when Labour polled 35%. It now polls around 20%. Across northern metropolitan boroughs the party won wards with 45-55% of the vote on a night when the Conservatives were in freefall over Partygate and Keir Starmer's approval ratings were positive. Those seats are now being defended on current polling.
Our projections show Labour facing significant losses, with the heaviest in metropolitan boroughs. In London, all 32 boroughs vote on the same day. Labour should hold most inner London councils but outer boroughs like Croydon, Enfield, and Barnet look vulnerable. The Greens are the main threat in inner London wards where Labour has lost support over Gaza and the government's early record.
When these seats were last contested, Reform barely existed as a local force. It stood in a handful of wards in 2022 and won almost nothing. In 2025 it won 887 seats. Since mid-2025 it has polled 25-30% consistently and has been gaining council seats in by-elections at a striking rate. Farage has committed over £5 million to direct mail and social media ahead of May.
Reform has no incumbency advantage outside Kent and a handful of councils gained in 2025. It is standing in wards where it has never competed, against parties with decades of local infrastructure. In many places the question is not whether Reform gains votes but whether it gains enough to actually win seats under first-past-the-post.
The counties are the big test. Essex, Norfolk, and Suffolk are large rural authorities with high Leave votes and deep Conservative incumbency. Our model projects Reform to take control of all three. If that happens it would be the most significant county-level realignment since the Conservatives lost their rural heartlands to the Liberal Democrats in the 1990s.
The Conservatives are defending seats won when the party polled in the mid-30s. They now poll around 18-19%, third behind both Reform and Labour. In counties they are losing to Reform. In southern districts and London they face the Liberal Democrats. In metropolitan boroughs they are a minor party in wards they once held. In several northern councils our projections show them falling to single digits.
Hampshire is worth watching. It is one of the largest county councils at 78 divisions and sits on the boundary between Reform's strength in Leave-voting eastern Hampshire and the Liberal Democrats in affluent western Hampshire around Winchester and Eastleigh. Whether it ends up NOC, narrow Reform, or a Lib Dem surge will say a lot about Reform's limits in southern England.
The Greens poll 11-14%, up sharply since Zack Polanski became leader. The party won its first parliamentary by-election in Gorton and Denton in February and now holds five MPs. In local government it has been building a base in university cities, coastal towns, and inner London boroughs.
Hastings is the headline. Our model projects the Greens as the largest party with 16 of 32 seats, one short of the 17 needed for majority control. Norwich could see them become the largest group. In Sheffield and Leeds, Green gains threaten Labour's majorities.
The big unknown is candidacy. The Greens do not stand in every ward and in many councils outside their strongholds they lack the organisation to field a full slate. April's nominations data will be the first hard check on these numbers.
The Liberal Democrats poll around 12-13% nationally, similar to the general election. But the party routinely outperforms its national share in local contests, particularly in southern England where it has ward-level infrastructure that national polls miss.
The party is projected to gain in districts across Hampshire, Surrey, Hertfordshire, and Cambridgeshire. South Cambridgeshire, St Albans, Winchester, Eastleigh, and Kingston upon Thames all look strong. Like the Greens, the Liberal Democrat numbers are heavily candidacy-dependent and will shift once nominations close in April.
Reform's county results come first. Counties count overnight and declare Friday morning. If Reform takes Essex and Norfolk before breakfast, the narrative is set before a single London or metropolitan borough has declared.
Labour's northern losses set the scale. All ten Greater Manchester councils vote, plus South Yorkshire, West Yorkshire, and the North East. Wigan, Sunderland, Barnsley, and Rochdale are the bellwethers. If Labour holds 30+ seats in these councils, the damage is manageable. Below 20 is a crisis.
London tests Labour's floor. Inner London should hold. The questions are Wandsworth (gained in 2022), Croydon, and whether the Greens take seats in Lewisham, Islington, and Haringey.
Green gains outside strongholds. Brighton, Bristol, Norwich, and Sheffield are established territory. Breaking through in Leeds, Croydon, and Reading would confirm the Greens as a permanent force in English local politics.
Independents are the wildcard. Bradford, Oldham, Tower Hamlets, Bolton, and Blackburn with Darwen all have significant independent and community group representation that national polling models cannot capture. These councils carry the widest uncertainty.
These elections coincide with the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Senedd elections, making 7 May the biggest day of voting since the 2024 general election. Labour's strategists expect heavy losses. The question is whether the scale triggers something more serious. For Reform, the test is whether polling translates into actually running councils. For the Conservatives, whether they are still a viable opposition anywhere outside London and the south. For the Greens and Lib Dems, whether a fragmenting two-party system gives them lasting gains or another false dawn.