Who is the MP for West Lancashire?

Ashley Dalton (Labour) is the MP for West Lancashire. They were first elected in February 2023.

Who won West Lancashire at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in West Lancashire was won by Labour with 50.5% of the vote, ahead of Conservative on 19.6%.

Who is projected to win the next election in West Lancashire?

PollCheck's current projection has Reform UK on 33.4% and Labour on 28.7% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is West Lancashire in?

West Lancashire sits within West Lancashire council. Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units, but West Lancashire covers most or all of the West Lancashire area.

What is the demographic profile of West Lancashire?

West Lancashire is in North West. The seat is closely divided on Brexit (Leave vote estimated at 55.0% in 2016). Around 29.7% of residents have a degree, a median age of 43, and 68.9% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in West Lancashire?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In West Lancashire, Labour won with 50.5% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won West Lancashire in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in West Lancashire: 2010 Labour, 2015 Labour, 2017 Labour, 2019 Labour, 2024 Labour.

Constituency profile

West Lancashire

North West · County constituency · West Lancashire borough

Sitting MP

Ashley Dalton

Labour

First elected February 2023

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type

North West

County constituency, West Lancashire council

Last 5 GE winners

LLLLL

Labour 5/5

EU referendum 2016

55.0% Leave

UK average 51.9%; +3.1pp above mean

Current outlook

Reform UK +4.7pp

Vulnerability score 7/10 (Labour projected to lose)

NorthernLeave-leaning

Who lives in West Lancashire? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

55.0%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

29.7%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

17.8%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

68.9%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

30.1%

UK average ~36%

Median age

43.1

UK median ~40

Age 65+

24.9%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

30.7%

UK average ~28%

How did West Lancashire vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab hold · majority 13,625 votes (30.9pp) · turnout 59.7%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of West Lancashire

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Council layer (not Westminster)

West Lancashire within West Lancashire

The Westminster constituency of West Lancashire sits entirely within West Lancashire Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - the figures below are from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat	Projection
West Lancashire 62 LSOAs	100%	View projection ›

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for West Lancashire at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won West Lancashire at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010	Lab hold	Rosie Cooper	45.1%	36.2%	13.6%	3.7% UKIP	1.0%	0.4%	4,343	65.7%
2015	Lab hold	Rosie Cooper	49.3%	32.4%	2.6%	12.2% UKIP	3.2%	0.3%	8,360	70.1%
2017	Lab hold	Rosie Cooper	58.9%	37.4%	2.0%	-	1.3%	0.5%	11,689	74.2%
2019notional	Labour winner	Rosie Cooper 2019 MP, pre-review boundary	52.1%	36.3%	4.9%	-	2.4%	4.3%	8,336	71.5%
2024	Lab hold	Ashley Dalton	50.5%	19.6%	4.6%	17.9% Ref	7.4%	-	13,625	59.7%

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like West Lancashire

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to West Lancashire. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.