Who is the MP for West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine?

Andrew Bowie (Conservative) is the MP for West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine. They were first elected in June 2017.

Who won West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine was won by Conservative with 35.6% of the vote, ahead of SNP on 28.6%.

Who is projected to win the next election in West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine?

PollCheck's current projection has SNP on 31.4% and Conservative on 30.4% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine in?

West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine sits within Aberdeenshire council. Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units, but Aberdeenshire covers most or all of the West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine area.

What is the demographic profile of West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine?

West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine is in Scotland. The seat is Remain-voting (Leave vote estimated at 39.2% in 2016). Around 51.5% of residents have a degree, a median age of 45, and 77.0% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine, Conservative won with 35.6% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine: 2010 Liberal Democrats, 2015 SNP, 2017 Conservative, 2019 Conservative, 2024 Conservative.

Constituency profile

West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

Scotland · County constituency · Aberdeenshire borough

Sitting MP

Andrew Bowie

Conservative

First elected June 2017Shadow: Shadow Secretary of State for Scotland

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type

Scotland

County constituency, Aberdeenshire council

Last 5 GE winners

LDSCCC

Conservative 3/5, Liberal Democrats 1/5, SNP 1/5

EU referendum 2016

39.2% Leave

UK average 51.9%; -12.7pp below mean

Current outlook

SNP +1.0pp

Vulnerability score 5/10 (Conservative projected to lose)

ScottishRemain-leaningGraduate-heavy

Who lives in West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

39.2%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

51.5%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

11.0%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

77.0%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

21.2%

UK average ~36%

Median age

45.4

UK median ~40

Age 65+

25.3%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

22.1%

UK average ~28%

How did West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Con hold · majority 3,441 votes (7.0pp) · turnout 67.1%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 800 residents each, from Scotland's 2022 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Holyrood 2026 layer

How West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)

West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine crosses multiple Holyrood boundaries: Aberdeenshire West (79%), Angus North and Mearns (17%), Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine (3%). Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.

Holyrood constituency	Share of West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine	Winner	Runner-up	Elected MSP
Aberdeenshire West	79%	Conservative 42.9%	SNP 27.3%	Alexander Burnett
Angus North and Mearns	17%	SNP 39.0%	Conservative 27.8%	Dawn Black
Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine	3%	SNP 34.1%	Conservative 30.5%	Stephen Flynn

Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new Holyrood second-review boundary (in force from 7 May 2026).

Council layer (not Westminster)

West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine within Aberdeenshire

The Westminster constituency of West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine sits entirely within Aberdeenshire Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - the figures below are from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat
Aberdeenshire 1 LSOAs	100%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010	LD hold	Robert Smith	13.6%	30.3%	38.4%	0.9% UKIP	-	1.1%	3,684	68.4%
2015	SNP gain from LD	Stuart Donaldson	4.5%	28.8%	21.4%	1.8% UKIP	1.6%	0.3%	7,033	75.2%
2017	Con gain from SNP	Andrew Bowie	11.1%	47.9%	8.6%	-	-	-	7,950	71.2%
2019notional	Conservative winner	Andrew Bowie 2019 MP, pre-review boundary	4.6%	42.7%	11.7%	-	-	41.1%	843	72.4%
2024	Con hold	Andrew Bowie	13.1%	35.6%	13.0%	7.1% Ref	2.1%	0.6%	3,441	67.1%

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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