Who is the MP for Stretford and Urmston?

Andrew Western (Labour) is the MP for Stretford and Urmston. They were first elected in December 2022.

Who won Stretford and Urmston at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in Stretford and Urmston was won by Labour with 49.2% of the vote, ahead of Conservative on 14.1%.

Who is projected to win the next election in Stretford and Urmston?

PollCheck's current projection has Labour on 25.8% and Reform UK on 23.3% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is Stretford and Urmston in?

Stretford and Urmston sits within Trafford council. Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units, but Trafford covers most or all of the Stretford and Urmston area.

What is the demographic profile of Stretford and Urmston?

Stretford and Urmston is in North West. The seat is closely divided on Brexit (Leave vote estimated at 48.9% in 2016). Around 35.6% of residents have a degree, a median age of 39, and 63.5% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in Stretford and Urmston?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In Stretford and Urmston, Labour won with 49.2% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won Stretford and Urmston in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in Stretford and Urmston: 2010 Labour, 2015 Labour, 2017 Labour, 2019 Labour, 2024 Labour.

Constituency profile

Stretford and Urmston

North West · Borough constituency · Trafford borough

Sitting MP

Andrew Western

Labour

First elected December 2022

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type

North West

Borough constituency, Trafford council

Last 5 GE winners

LLLLL

Labour 5/5

EU referendum 2016

48.9% Leave

UK average 51.9%; -3.0pp below mean

Current outlook

Labour +2.5pp

vs Reform UK 23.3%

NorthernBrexit-marginalDiverse

Who lives in Stretford and Urmston? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

48.9%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

35.6%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

17.1%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

63.5%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

35.5%

UK average ~36%

Median age

39.3

UK median ~40

Age 65+

19.8%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

30.2%

UK average ~28%

How did Stretford and Urmston vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab hold · majority 16,150 votes (35.1pp) · turnout 61.2%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Stretford and Urmston

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Council layer (not Westminster)

Stretford and Urmston within Trafford

The Westminster constituency of Stretford and Urmston sits entirely within Trafford Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - the figures below are from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat	Projection
Trafford 61 LSOAs	100%	View projection ›

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Stretford and Urmston at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Stretford and Urmston at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010	Lab hold	Kate Green	48.6%	28.7%	16.9%	3.4% UKIP	2.0%	0.4%	8,935	63.3%
2015	Lab hold	Kate Green	53.0%	27.8%	2.9%	10.9% UKIP	4.7%	0.5%	11,685	67.2%
2017	Lab hold	Kate Green	66.8%	27.5%	2.0%	2.2% UKIP	1.3%	0.2%	19,705	69.9%
2019notional	Labour winner	Kate Green 2019 MP, pre-review boundary	60.3%	27.5%	5.9%	-	2.7%	3.6%	16,417	68.4%
2024	Lab hold	Andrew Western	49.2%	14.1%	4.8%	11.9% Ref	9.6%	10.4%	16,150	61.2%

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Stretford and Urmston

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Stretford and Urmston. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.