Who is the MP for Stoke-on-Trent Central?

Gareth Snell (Labour (Co-op)) is the MP for Stoke-on-Trent Central. They were first elected in July 2024.

Who won Stoke-on-Trent Central at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in Stoke-on-Trent Central was won by Labour with 42.4% of the vote, ahead of Reform UK on 24.2%.

Who is projected to win the next election in Stoke-on-Trent Central?

PollCheck's current projection has Reform UK on 37.7% and Labour on 29.0% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is Stoke-on-Trent Central in?

Stoke-on-Trent Central sits within Stoke-on-Trent council. Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units, but Stoke-on-Trent covers most or all of the Stoke-on-Trent Central area.

What is the demographic profile of Stoke-on-Trent Central?

Stoke-on-Trent Central is in West Midlands. The seat is Leave-voting (Leave vote estimated at 64.8% in 2016). Around 22.3% of residents have a degree, a median age of 36, and 50.9% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in Stoke-on-Trent Central?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In Stoke-on-Trent Central, Labour won with 42.4% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won Stoke-on-Trent Central in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in Stoke-on-Trent Central: 2010 Labour, 2015 Labour, 2017 Labour, 2019 Conservative, 2024 Labour.

Constituency profile

Stoke-on-Trent Central

West Midlands · Borough constituency · Stoke-on-Trent borough

Sitting MP

Gareth Snell

Labour (Co-op)

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type

West Midlands

Borough constituency, Stoke-on-Trent council

Last 5 GE winners

LLLCL

Labour 4/5, Conservative 1/5

EU referendum 2016

64.8% Leave

UK average 51.9%; +12.9pp above mean

Current outlook

Reform UK +8.7pp

Vulnerability score 8/10 (Labour projected to lose)

MidlandsStrong Leave areaWorking-class profile

Who lives in Stoke-on-Trent Central? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

64.8%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

22.3%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

25.6%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

50.9%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

48.3%

UK average ~36%

Median age

36.3

UK median ~40

Age 65+

18.4%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

36.2%

UK average ~28%

How did Stoke-on-Trent Central vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab gain from Con · majority 6,409 votes (18.2pp) · turnout 47.8%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Stoke-on-Trent Central

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Council layer (not Westminster)

Stoke-on-Trent Central within Stoke-on-Trent

The Westminster constituency of Stoke-on-Trent Central sits entirely within Stoke-on-Trent Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - the figures below are from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat
Stoke-on-Trent 73 LSOAs	100%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Stoke-on-Trent Central at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Stoke-on-Trent Central at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010	Lab hold	Tristram Hunt	38.8%	21.0%	21.7%	4.3% UKIP	-	14.1%	5,566	53.2%
2015	Lab hold	Tristram Hunt	39.3%	22.5%	4.2%	22.7% UKIP	3.6%	7.7%	5,179	51.3%
2017	Lab hold	Gareth Snell	51.5%	39.8%	2.1%	4.9% UKIP	1.1%	0.6%	3,897	58.2%
2019notional	Conservative winner	Jo Gideon 2019 MP, pre-review boundary	42.9%	47.1%	3.8%	-	2.0%	4.2%	1,715	57.6%
2024	Lab gain from Con	Gareth Snell	42.4%	17.6%	2.8%	24.2% Ref	4.8%	8.1%	6,409	47.8%

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Stoke-on-Trent Central

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Stoke-on-Trent Central. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.