Who is the MP for Stockton West?

Matt Vickers (Conservative) is the MP for Stockton West. They were first elected in December 2019.

Who won Stockton West at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in Stockton West was won by Conservative with 41.9% of the vote, ahead of Labour on 37.5%.

Who is projected to win the next election in Stockton West?

PollCheck's current projection has Conservative on 37.0% and Reform UK on 25.3% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is Stockton West in?

Stockton West crosses multiple council boundaries: Stockton-on-Tees (90%), Darlington (10%). Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units.

What is the demographic profile of Stockton West?

Stockton West is in North East. The seat is Leave-voting (Leave vote estimated at 61.2% in 2016). Around 36.6% of residents have a degree, a median age of 45, and 79.8% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in Stockton West?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In Stockton West, Conservative won with 41.9% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won Stockton West in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in Stockton West: 2010 Labour, 2015 Labour, 2017 Labour, 2019 Conservative, 2024 Conservative.

Constituency profile

Stockton West

North East · County constituency

Sitting MP

Matt Vickers

Conservative

First elected December 2019

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type

North East

County constituency

Last 5 GE winners

LLLCC

Labour 3/5, Conservative 2/5

EU referendum 2016

61.2% Leave

UK average 51.9%; +9.3pp above mean

Current outlook

Conservative +11.7pp

vs Reform UK 25.3%

NorthernStrong Leave area

Who lives in Stockton West? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

61.2%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

36.6%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

13.7%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

79.8%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

19.8%

UK average ~36%

Median age

44.6

UK median ~40

Age 65+

25.5%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

24.8%

UK average ~28%

How did Stockton West vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Con hold · majority 2,139 votes (4.4pp) · turnout 67.7%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Stockton West

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Council layer (not Westminster)

Stockton West within Stockton-on-Tees and Darlington

Stockton West crosses multiple council boundaries: Stockton-on-Tees (90%), Darlington (10%). The figures below come from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026 in each constituent council.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat
Stockton-on-Tees 51 LSOAs	90%
Darlington 6 LSOAs	10%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Stockton West at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Stockton West at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010predecessor	Lab hold	Phil Wilson Sedgefield MP	45.1%	23.5%	20.0%	3.7% UKIP	-	7.8%	8,696	62.1%
2015predecessor	Lab hold	Phil Wilson Sedgefield MP	47.2%	29.5%	3.5%	16.6% UKIP	3.1%	-	6,843	61.6%
2017predecessor	Lab hold	Phil Wilson Sedgefield MP	53.4%	38.8%	1.9%	4.2% UKIP	1.6%	-	6,059	65.1%
2019notional	Conservative winner	Paul Howell Sedgefield MP, pre-review boundary	33.9%	56.5%	4.4%	-	0.5%	4.7%	11,749	74.2%
2024	Con hold	Matt Vickers	37.5%	41.9%	2.5%	14.0% Ref	3.0%	1.1%	2,139	67.7%

Stockton West was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Sedgefield (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Stockton West

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Stockton West. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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