Who is the MP for South Basildon and East Thurrock?

James McMurdock (Independent) is the MP for South Basildon and East Thurrock. They were first elected in July 2024.

Who won South Basildon and East Thurrock at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in South Basildon and East Thurrock was won by Reform UK with 30.8% of the vote, ahead of Labour on 30.5%.

Who is projected to win the next election in South Basildon and East Thurrock?

PollCheck's current projection has Reform UK on 49.3% and Conservative on 17.0% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is South Basildon and East Thurrock in?

South Basildon and East Thurrock crosses multiple council boundaries: Thurrock (53%), Basildon (47%). Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units.

What is the demographic profile of South Basildon and East Thurrock?

South Basildon and East Thurrock is in East of England. The seat is Leave-voting (Leave vote estimated at 73.0% in 2016). Around 22.3% of residents have a degree, a median age of 39, and 64.8% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in South Basildon and East Thurrock?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In South Basildon and East Thurrock, Reform UK won with 30.8% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won South Basildon and East Thurrock in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in South Basildon and East Thurrock: 2010 Conservative, 2015 Conservative, 2017 Conservative, 2019 Conservative, 2024 Reform UK.

Constituency profile

South Basildon and East Thurrock

East of England · County constituency

Sitting MP

James McMurdock

Independent

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type

East of England

County constituency

Last 5 GE winners

CCCCR

Conservative 4/5, Reform UK 1/5

EU referendum 2016

73.0% Leave

UK average 51.9%; +21.1pp above mean

Current outlook

Reform UK +32.3pp

vs Conservative 17.0%

SouthernStrong Leave areaWorking-class profile

Who lives in South Basildon and East Thurrock? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

73.0%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

22.3%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

22.5%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

64.8%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

34.0%

UK average ~36%

Median age

39.4

UK median ~40

Age 65+

21.9%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

30.8%

UK average ~28%

How did South Basildon and East Thurrock vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

RUK gain from Con · majority 98 votes (0.3pp) · turnout 54.4%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of South Basildon and East Thurrock

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Council layer (not Westminster)

South Basildon and East Thurrock within Thurrock and Basildon

South Basildon and East Thurrock crosses multiple council boundaries: Thurrock (53%), Basildon (47%). The figures below come from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026 in each constituent council.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat	Projection
Thurrock 34 LSOAs	53%	View projection ›
Basildon 30 LSOAs	47%	View projection ›

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for South Basildon and East Thurrock at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won South Basildon and East Thurrock at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010	Con gain from Lab	Stephen Metcalfe	31.0%	43.9%	13.4%	5.9% UKIP	-	5.9%	5,772	62.2%
2015	Con hold	Stephen Metcalfe	25.2%	43.4%	3.0%	26.5% UKIP	-	1.9%	7,691	64.1%
2017	Con hold	Stephen Metcalfe	32.5%	56.9%	1.6%	6.8% UKIP	1.4%	0.8%	11,490	64.1%
2019notional	Conservative winner	Stephen Metcalfe 2019 MP, pre-review boundary	23.6%	65.4%	4.1%	-	0.2%	6.7%	18,731	61.0%
2024	RUK gain from Con	James McMurdock	30.5%	25.7%	2.7%	30.8% Ref	4.3%	5.9%	98	54.4%

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like South Basildon and East Thurrock

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to South Basildon and East Thurrock. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.