Who is the MP for Smethwick?

Gurinder Singh Josan (Labour) is the MP for Smethwick. They were first elected in July 2024.

Who won Smethwick at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in Smethwick was won by Labour with 48.0% of the vote, ahead of Reform UK on 16.1%.

Who is projected to win the next election in Smethwick?

PollCheck's current projection has Labour on 31.1% and Reform UK on 26.9% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is Smethwick in?

Smethwick sits within Sandwell council. Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units, but Sandwell covers most or all of the Smethwick area.

What is the demographic profile of Smethwick?

Smethwick is in West Midlands. The seat is Leave-voting (Leave vote estimated at 64.1% in 2016). Around 25.0% of residents have a degree, a median age of 36, and 54.1% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in Smethwick?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In Smethwick, Labour won with 48.0% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won Smethwick in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in Smethwick: 2010 Labour, 2015 Labour, 2017 Labour, 2019 Labour, 2024 Labour.

Constituency profile

Smethwick

West Midlands · Borough constituency · Sandwell borough

Sitting MP

Gurinder Singh Josan

Labour

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type

West Midlands

Borough constituency, Sandwell council

Last 5 GE winners

LLLLL

Labour 5/5

EU referendum 2016

64.1% Leave

UK average 51.9%; +12.2pp above mean

Current outlook

Labour +4.2pp

vs Reform UK 26.9%

MidlandsStrong Leave areaWorking-class profileDiverse

Who lives in Smethwick? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

64.1%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

25.0%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

28.4%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

54.1%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

44.6%

UK average ~36%

Median age

36.1

UK median ~40

Age 65+

17.1%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

34.1%

UK average ~28%

How did Smethwick vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab hold · majority 11,188 votes (31.9pp) · turnout 48.2%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Smethwick

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Council layer (not Westminster)

Smethwick within Sandwell

The Westminster constituency of Smethwick sits entirely within Sandwell Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - the figures below are from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat	Projection
Sandwell 64 LSOAs	100%	View projection ›

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Smethwick at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Smethwick at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010predecessor	Lab hold	John Spellar Warley MP	52.9%	24.8%	15.5%	6.8% UKIP	-	-	10,756	61.0%
2015predecessor	Lab hold	John Spellar Warley MP	58.2%	19.3%	2.1%	16.5% UKIP	3.9%	-	14,702	59.4%
2017predecessor	Lab hold	John Spellar Warley MP	67.2%	26.2%	1.9%	3.4% UKIP	1.4%	-	16,483	63.1%
2019notional	Labour winner	John Spellar Warley MP, pre-review boundary	57.0%	30.2%	4.5%	-	2.3%	6.0%	10,974	57.5%
2024	Lab hold	Gurinder Josan	48.0%	12.9%	2.9%	16.1% Ref	7.8%	12.2%	11,188	48.2%

Smethwick was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Warley (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Smethwick

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Smethwick. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.