Who is the MP for Salford?

Rebecca Long Bailey (Labour) is the MP for Salford. They were first elected in May 2015.

Who won Salford at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in Salford was won by Labour with 53.2% of the vote, ahead of Reform UK on 15.2%.

Who is projected to win the next election in Salford?

PollCheck's current projection has Labour on 33.6% and Reform UK on 29.6% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is Salford in?

Salford sits within Salford council. Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units, but Salford covers most or all of the Salford area.

What is the demographic profile of Salford?

Salford is in North West. The seat is closely divided on Brexit (Leave vote estimated at 51.8% in 2016). Around 37.4% of residents have a degree, a median age of 31, and 35.1% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in Salford?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In Salford, Labour won with 53.2% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won Salford in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in Salford: 2010 Labour, 2015 Labour, 2017 Labour, 2019 Labour, 2024 Labour.

Constituency profile

Salford

North West · Borough constituency · Salford borough

Sitting MP

Rebecca Long Bailey

Labour

First elected May 2015

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type

North West

Borough constituency, Salford council

Last 5 GE winners

LLLLL

Labour 5/5

EU referendum 2016

51.8% Leave

UK average 51.9%; -0.1pp below mean

Current outlook

Labour +4.0pp

vs Reform UK 29.6%

NorthernBrexit-marginal

Who lives in Salford? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

51.8%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

37.4%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

19.1%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

35.1%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

64.0%

UK average ~36%

Median age

31.2

UK median ~40

Age 65+

12.4%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

49.2%

UK average ~28%

How did Salford vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab hold · majority 15,101 votes (38.0pp) · turnout 47.5%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Salford

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Council layer (not Westminster)

Salford within Salford

The Westminster constituency of Salford sits entirely within Salford Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - the figures below are from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat	Projection
Salford 72 LSOAs	100%	View projection ›

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Salford at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Salford at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010predecessor	Lab hold	Hazel Blears Salford and Eccles MP	40.1%	20.5%	26.3%	2.6% UKIP	-	10.5%	5,725	55.0%
2015predecessor	Lab hold	Rebecca Long Bailey Salford and Eccles MP	49.4%	20.4%	3.7%	18.0% UKIP	5.2%	3.2%	12,541	58.2%
2017predecessor	Lab hold	Rebecca Long Bailey Salford and Eccles MP	65.5%	25.3%	2.7%	4.9% UKIP	1.7%	-	19,132	61.0%
2019notional	Labour winner	Rebecca Long-Bailey Salford and Eccles MP, pre-review boundary	57.4%	23.3%	6.2%	-	4.3%	8.8%	14,248	57.9%
2024	Lab hold	Rebecca Long-Bailey	53.2%	9.0%	6.9%	15.2% Ref	13.1%	2.6%	15,101	47.5%

Salford was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Salford and Eccles (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Salford

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Salford. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.