Who is the MP for Rochdale?

Paul Waugh (Labour (Co-op)) is the MP for Rochdale. They were first elected in July 2024.

Who won Rochdale at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in Rochdale was won by Labour with 32.8% of the vote, ahead of Others on 29.2%.

Who is projected to win the next election in Rochdale?

PollCheck's current projection has Reform UK on 28.7% and Others on 22.0% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is Rochdale in?

Rochdale sits within Rochdale council. Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units, but Rochdale covers most or all of the Rochdale area.

What is the demographic profile of Rochdale?

Rochdale is in North West. The seat is Leave-voting (Leave vote estimated at 57.5% in 2016). Around 26.1% of residents have a degree, a median age of 37, and 58.3% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in Rochdale?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In Rochdale, Labour won with 32.8% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won Rochdale in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in Rochdale: 2010 Labour, 2015 Labour, 2017 Labour, 2019 Labour, 2024 Labour.

Constituency profile

Rochdale

North West · County constituency · Rochdale borough

Sitting MP

Paul Waugh

Labour (Co-op)

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type

North West

County constituency, Rochdale council

Last 5 GE winners

LLLLL

Labour 5/5

EU referendum 2016

57.5% Leave

UK average 51.9%; +5.6pp above mean

Current outlook

Reform UK +6.7pp

Vulnerability score 9/10 (Labour projected to lose)

NorthernLeave-leaningWorking-class profileDiverse

Who lives in Rochdale? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

57.5%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

26.1%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

24.3%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

58.3%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

41.2%

UK average ~36%

Median age

36.9

UK median ~40

Age 65+

18.9%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

33.0%

UK average ~28%

How did Rochdale vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab hold · majority 1,440 votes (3.6pp) · turnout 54.7%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Rochdale

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Council layer (not Westminster)

Rochdale within Rochdale

The Westminster constituency of Rochdale sits entirely within Rochdale Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - the figures below are from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat	Projection
Rochdale 59 LSOAs	100%	View projection ›

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Rochdale at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Rochdale at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010	Lab hold	Simon Danczuk	36.4%	18.1%	34.4%	4.4% UKIP	-	6.7%	889	58.1%
2015	Lab hold	Simon Danczuk	46.1%	17.0%	10.3%	18.8% UKIP	3.0%	4.8%	12,442	58.8%
2017	Lab hold	Tony Lloyd	58.0%	28.4%	8.0%	3.3% UKIP	-	2.2%	14,819	64.1%
2019notional	Labour winner	Tony Lloyd 2019 MP, pre-review boundary	50.8%	31.6%	7.5%	-	1.9%	8.2%	8,109	58.7%
2024	Lab hold	Paul Waugh	32.8%	10.8%	7.1%	17.1% Ref	3.1%	29.2%	1,440	54.7%

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Rochdale

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Rochdale. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.