Who is the MP for Rhondda and Ogmore?

Chris Bryant (Labour) is the MP for Rhondda and Ogmore. They were first elected in June 2001.

Who won Rhondda and Ogmore at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in Rhondda and Ogmore was won by Labour with 47.8% of the vote, ahead of Reform UK on 26.1%.

Who is projected to win the next election in Rhondda and Ogmore?

PollCheck's current projection has Reform UK on 35.4% and Plaid Cymru on 25.4% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is Rhondda and Ogmore in?

Rhondda and Ogmore crosses multiple council boundaries: Rhondda Cynon Taf (84%), Bridgend (16%). Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units.

What is the demographic profile of Rhondda and Ogmore?

Rhondda and Ogmore is in Wales. The seat is Leave-voting (Leave vote estimated at 55.3% in 2016). Around 21.9% of residents have a degree, a median age of 42, and 66.8% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in Rhondda and Ogmore?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In Rhondda and Ogmore, Labour won with 47.8% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won Rhondda and Ogmore in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in Rhondda and Ogmore: 2010 Labour, 2015 Labour, 2017 Labour, 2019 Labour, 2024 Labour.

Constituency profile

Rhondda and Ogmore

Wales · County constituency

Sitting MP

Chris Bryant

Labour

First elected June 2001

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type

Wales

County constituency

Last 5 GE winners

LLLLL

Labour 5/5

EU referendum 2016

55.3% Leave

UK average 51.9%; +3.4pp above mean

Current outlook

Reform UK +10.0pp

Vulnerability score 9/10 (Labour projected to lose)

WelshLeave-leaningWorking-class profile

Who lives in Rhondda and Ogmore? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

55.3%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

21.9%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

28.0%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

66.8%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

32.9%

UK average ~36%

Median age

41.8

UK median ~40

Age 65+

24.0%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

29.7%

UK average ~28%

How did Rhondda and Ogmore vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab hold · majority 7,790 votes (21.7pp) · turnout 48.1%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Rhondda and Ogmore

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Senedd 2026 layer

How Rhondda and Ogmore voted at the Senedd election (7 May 2026)

Rhondda and Ogmore sits almost entirely within the Senedd constituency of Afan Ogwr Rhondda. Senedd elections use a closed-list proportional system; each Senedd seat returns six members.

Senedd constituency	Share of Rhondda and Ogmore	Winner	Runner-up	Seats (6 per constituency)
Afan Ogwr Rhondda	98%	Plaid Cymru 36.9%	Reform UK 33.6%	3 Plaid Cymru, 2 Reform UK, 1 Labour
Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr	2%	Plaid Cymru 39.5%	Reform UK 30.6%	3 Plaid Cymru, 2 Reform UK, 1 Labour

Senedd 2026 results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new 16-seat Senedd boundary.

Council layer (not Westminster)

Rhondda and Ogmore within Rhondda Cynon Taf and Bridgend

Rhondda and Ogmore crosses multiple council boundaries: Rhondda Cynon Taf (84%), Bridgend (16%). The figures below come from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026 in each constituent council.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat
Rhondda Cynon Taf 56 LSOAs	84%
Bridgend 11 LSOAs	16%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Rhondda and Ogmore at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Rhondda and Ogmore at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010predecessor	Lab hold	Chris Bryant Rhondda MP	55.3%	6.4%	10.6%	1.2% UKIP	-	8.4%	11,553	60.3%
2015predecessor	Lab hold	Chris Bryant Rhondda MP	50.7%	6.7%	1.5%	12.7% UKIP	1.4%	-	7,455	60.9%
2017predecessor	Lab hold	Chris Bryant Rhondda MP	64.1%	10.1%	0.8%	2.7% UKIP	-	-	13,746	65.2%
2019notional	Labour winner	Chris Bryant Rhondda MP, pre-review boundary	56.3%	15.4%	2.3%	-	1.4%	24.6%	17,377	57.8%
2024	Lab hold	Chris Bryant	47.8%	5.7%	2.6%	26.1% Ref	3.3%	-	7,790	48.1%

Rhondda and Ogmore was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Rhondda (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Rhondda and Ogmore

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Rhondda and Ogmore. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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