Who is the MP for Paisley and Renfrewshire South?

Johanna Baxter (Labour) is the MP for Paisley and Renfrewshire South. They were first elected in July 2024.

Who won Paisley and Renfrewshire South at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in Paisley and Renfrewshire South was won by Labour with 47.4% of the vote, ahead of SNP on 31.6%.

Who is projected to win the next election in Paisley and Renfrewshire South?

PollCheck's current projection has SNP on 38.5% and Labour on 27.6% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is Paisley and Renfrewshire South in?

Paisley and Renfrewshire South sits within Renfrewshire council. Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units, but Renfrewshire covers most or all of the Paisley and Renfrewshire South area.

What is the demographic profile of Paisley and Renfrewshire South?

Paisley and Renfrewshire South is in Scotland. The seat is Remain-voting (Leave vote estimated at 34.8% in 2016). Around 43.0% of residents have a degree, a median age of 44, and 62.9% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in Paisley and Renfrewshire South?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In Paisley and Renfrewshire South, Labour won with 47.4% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won Paisley and Renfrewshire South in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in Paisley and Renfrewshire South: 2010 Labour, 2015 SNP, 2017 SNP, 2019 SNP, 2024 Labour.

Constituency profile

Paisley and Renfrewshire South

Scotland · County constituency · Renfrewshire borough

Sitting MP

Johanna Baxter

Labour

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type

Scotland

County constituency, Renfrewshire council

Last 5 GE winners

LSSSL

SNP 3/5, Labour 2/5

EU referendum 2016

34.8% Leave

UK average 51.9%; -17.1pp below mean

Current outlook

SNP +10.9pp

Vulnerability score 8/10 (Labour projected to lose)

ScottishStrong Remain areaGraduate-heavy

Who lives in Paisley and Renfrewshire South? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

34.8%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

43.0%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

18.2%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

62.9%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

36.0%

UK average ~36%

Median age

43.8

UK median ~40

Age 65+

22.7%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

29.3%

UK average ~28%

How did Paisley and Renfrewshire South vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab gain from SNP · majority 6,527 votes (15.8pp) · turnout 57.7%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Paisley and Renfrewshire South

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 800 residents each, from Scotland's 2022 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Holyrood 2026 layer

How Paisley and Renfrewshire South voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)

Paisley and Renfrewshire South crosses multiple Holyrood boundaries: Renfrewshire West and Levern Valley (81%), Paisley (17%), Cunninghame North (2%). Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.

Holyrood constituency	Share of Paisley and Renfrewshire South	Winner	Runner-up	Elected MSP
Renfrewshire West and Levern Valley	81%	SNP 40.4%	Labour 30.8%	Tom Arthur
Paisley	17%	SNP 42.6%	Labour 32.8%	George Adam
Cunninghame North	2%	SNP 39.2%	Labour 20.0%	Kenneth Gibson

Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new Holyrood second-review boundary (in force from 7 May 2026).

Council layer (not Westminster)

Paisley and Renfrewshire South within Renfrewshire

The Westminster constituency of Paisley and Renfrewshire South sits entirely within Renfrewshire Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - the figures below are from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat
Renfrewshire 1 LSOAs	100%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Paisley and Renfrewshire South at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Paisley and Renfrewshire South at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010	Lab hold	Douglas Alexander	59.6%	9.9%	9.5%	-	-	2.8%	16,614	65.4%
2015	SNP gain from Lab	Mhairi Black	38.6%	7.6%	2.2%	-	-	0.6%	5,684	75.4%
2017	SNP hold	Mhairi Black	34.6%	19.5%	3.2%	-	-	2.1%	2,541	68.0%
2019notional	Scottish National Party winner	Mhairi Black 2019 MP, pre-review boundary	25.8%	18.2%	6.2%	-	-	49.8%	11,023	66.0%
2024	Lab gain from SNP	Johanna Baxter	47.4%	5.4%	3.2%	7.2% Ref	4.2%	1.0%	6,527	57.7%

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Paisley and Renfrewshire South

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Paisley and Renfrewshire South. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.