Who is the MP for Orpington?

Gareth Bacon (Conservative) is the MP for Orpington. They were first elected in December 2019.

Who won Orpington at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in Orpington was won by Conservative with 38.0% of the vote, ahead of Labour on 26.9%.

Who is projected to win the next election in Orpington?

PollCheck's current projection has Reform UK on 34.8% and Conservative on 32.2% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is Orpington in?

Orpington sits within Bromley council. Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units, but Bromley covers most or all of the Orpington area.

What is the demographic profile of Orpington?

Orpington is in London. The seat is Leave-voting (Leave vote estimated at 57.5% in 2016). Around 37.2% of residents have a degree, a median age of 42, and 73.3% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in Orpington?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In Orpington, Conservative won with 38.0% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won Orpington in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in Orpington: 2010 Conservative, 2015 Conservative, 2017 Conservative, 2019 Conservative, 2024 Conservative.

Constituency profile

Orpington

London · Borough constituency · Bromley borough

Sitting MP

Gareth Bacon

Conservative

First elected December 2019

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type

London

Borough constituency, Bromley council

Last 5 GE winners

CCCCC

Conservative 5/5

EU referendum 2016

57.5% Leave

UK average 51.9%; +5.6pp above mean

Current outlook

Reform UK +2.6pp

Vulnerability score 6/10 (Conservative projected to lose)

LondonLeave-leaning

Who lives in Orpington? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

57.5%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

37.2%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

16.0%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

73.3%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

25.9%

UK average ~36%

Median age

42.2

UK median ~40

Age 65+

24.1%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

26.2%

UK average ~28%

How did Orpington vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Con hold · majority 5,118 votes (11.1pp) · turnout 64.6%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Orpington

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Council layer (not Westminster)

Orpington within Bromley

The Westminster constituency of Orpington sits entirely within Bromley Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - the figures below are from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat	Projection
Bromley 60 LSOAs	100%	View projection ›

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Orpington at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Orpington at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010	Con hold	Jo Johnson	9.0%	59.7%	24.5%	2.8% UKIP	1.0%	2.9%	17,200	72.2%
2015	Con hold	Joseph Johnson	15.6%	57.4%	6.8%	16.7% UKIP	3.5%	-	19,979	72.0%
2017	Con hold	Joseph Johnson	24.4%	62.9%	6.6%	4.0% UKIP	2.1%	-	19,461	74.3%
2019notional	Conservative winner	Gareth Bacon 2019 MP, pre-review boundary	19.8%	61.9%	14.6%	-	3.7%	-	20,627	68.4%
2024	Con hold	Gareth Bacon	26.9%	38.0%	10.3%	19.3% Ref	5.0%	0.5%	5,118	64.6%

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Orpington

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Orpington. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.