Who is the MP for Orkney and Shetland?

Mr Alistair Carmichael (Liberal Democrat) is the MP for Orkney and Shetland. They were first elected in June 2001.

Who won Orkney and Shetland at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in Orkney and Shetland was won by Liberal Democrats with 55.1% of the vote, ahead of SNP on 17.3%.

Who is projected to win the next election in Orkney and Shetland?

PollCheck's current projection has Liberal Democrats on 47.0% and SNP on 18.7% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is Orkney and Shetland in?

Orkney and Shetland sits within Orkney Islands council. Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units, but Orkney Islands covers most or all of the Orkney and Shetland area.

What is the demographic profile of Orkney and Shetland?

Orkney and Shetland is in Scotland. The seat is Remain-voting (Leave vote estimated at 40.3% in 2016). Around 43.5% of residents have a degree, a median age of 47, and 69.1% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in Orkney and Shetland?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In Orkney and Shetland, Liberal Democrats won with 55.1% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won Orkney and Shetland in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in Orkney and Shetland: 2010 Liberal Democrats, 2015 Liberal Democrats, 2017 Liberal Democrats, 2019 Liberal Democrats, 2024 Liberal Democrats.

Constituency profile

Orkney and Shetland

Scotland · County constituency · Orkney Islands borough

Sitting MP

Mr Alistair Carmichael

Liberal Democrat

First elected June 2001

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type

Scotland

County constituency, Orkney Islands council

Last 5 GE winners

LDLDLDLDLD

Liberal Democrats 5/5

EU referendum 2016

40.3% Leave

UK average 51.9%; -11.6pp below mean

Current outlook

Liberal Democrats +28.3pp

vs SNP 18.7%

ScottishRemain-leaningGraduate-heavy

Who lives in Orkney and Shetland? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

40.3%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

43.5%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

16.1%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

69.1%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

28.1%

UK average ~36%

Median age

46.9

UK median ~40

Age 65+

27.7%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

24.3%

UK average ~28%

How did Orkney and Shetland vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

LD hold · majority 7,807 votes (37.8pp) · turnout 60.4%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Orkney and Shetland

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 800 residents each, from Scotland's 2022 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Holyrood 2026 layer

How Orkney and Shetland voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)

Orkney and Shetland crosses multiple Holyrood boundaries: Shetland Islands (55%), Orkney Islands (39%). Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.

Holyrood constituency	Share of Orkney and Shetland	Winner	Runner-up	Elected MSP
Shetland Islands	55%	SNP 47.5%	Liberal Democrats 34.3%	Hannah Mary Goodlad
Orkney Islands	39%	Liberal Democrats 70.2%	SNP 16.2%	Liam McArthur

Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new Holyrood second-review boundary (in force from 7 May 2026).

Council layer (not Westminster)

Orkney and Shetland within Orkney Islands

The Westminster constituency of Orkney and Shetland sits entirely within Orkney Islands Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - the figures below are from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat
Orkney Islands 1 LSOAs	100%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Orkney and Shetland at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Orkney and Shetland at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010	LD hold	Alistair Carmichael	10.7%	10.5%	62.0%	6.3% UKIP	-	-	9,928	58.5%
2015	LD hold	Alistair Carmichael	7.1%	8.9%	41.4%	4.8% UKIP	-	-	817	65.8%
2017	LD hold	Alistair Carmichael	11.4%	8.7%	48.6%	1.2% UKIP	-	1.1%	4,563	68.1%
2019notional	Liberal Democrat winner	Alistair Carmichael 2019 MP, pre-review boundary	6.7%	9.9%	44.8%	-	-	38.6%	2,507	66.5%
2024	LD hold	Alistair Carmichael	7.2%	2.8%	55.1%	7.7% Ref	9.9%	-	7,807	60.4%

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Orkney and Shetland

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Orkney and Shetland. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.