Who is the MP for North Ayrshire and Arran?

Irene Campbell (Labour) is the MP for North Ayrshire and Arran. They were first elected in July 2024.

Who won North Ayrshire and Arran at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in North Ayrshire and Arran was won by Labour with 39.8% of the vote, ahead of SNP on 31.4%.

Who is projected to win the next election in North Ayrshire and Arran?

PollCheck's current projection has SNP on 37.7% and Labour on 21.4% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is North Ayrshire and Arran in?

North Ayrshire and Arran sits within North Ayrshire council. Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units, but North Ayrshire covers most or all of the North Ayrshire and Arran area.

What is the demographic profile of North Ayrshire and Arran?

North Ayrshire and Arran is in Scotland. The seat is Remain-voting (Leave vote estimated at 42.4% in 2016). Around 42.1% of residents have a degree, a median age of 49, and 64.5% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in North Ayrshire and Arran?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In North Ayrshire and Arran, Labour won with 39.8% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won North Ayrshire and Arran in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in North Ayrshire and Arran: 2010 Labour, 2015 SNP, 2017 SNP, 2019 SNP, 2024 Labour.

Constituency profile

North Ayrshire and Arran

Scotland · County constituency · North Ayrshire borough

Sitting MP

Irene Campbell

Labour

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type

Scotland

County constituency, North Ayrshire council

Last 5 GE winners

LSSSL

SNP 3/5, Labour 2/5

EU referendum 2016

42.4% Leave

UK average 51.9%; -9.5pp below mean

Current outlook

SNP +16.3pp

Vulnerability score 9/10 (Labour projected to lose)

ScottishRemain-leaningGraduate-heavy

Who lives in North Ayrshire and Arran? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

42.4%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

42.1%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

19.6%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

64.5%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

34.2%

UK average ~36%

Median age

49.3

UK median ~40

Age 65+

29.3%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

23.4%

UK average ~28%

How did North Ayrshire and Arran vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab gain from SNP · majority 3,551 votes (8.4pp) · turnout 58.6%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of North Ayrshire and Arran

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 800 residents each, from Scotland's 2022 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Holyrood 2026 layer

How North Ayrshire and Arran voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)

North Ayrshire and Arran sits almost entirely within the Holyrood constituency of Cunninghame North. Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.

Holyrood constituency	Share of North Ayrshire and Arran	Winner	Runner-up	Elected MSP
Cunninghame North	91%	SNP 39.2%	Labour 20.0%	Kenneth Gibson
Cunninghame South	7%	SNP 38.8%	Labour 24.6%	Patricia Gibson

Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new Holyrood second-review boundary (in force from 7 May 2026).

Council layer (not Westminster)

North Ayrshire and Arran within North Ayrshire

The Westminster constituency of North Ayrshire and Arran sits entirely within North Ayrshire Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - the figures below are from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat
North Ayrshire 1 LSOAs	100%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for North Ayrshire and Arran at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won North Ayrshire and Arran at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010	Lab hold	Katy Clark	47.4%	15.6%	10.0%	-	-	1.0%	9,895	62.1%
2015	SNP gain from Lab	Patricia Gibson	28.0%	14.8%	1.7%	2.4% UKIP	-	-	13,573	71.1%
2017	SNP hold	Patricia Gibson	27.5%	31.2%	2.4%	-	-	-	3,633	64.8%
2019notional	Scottish National Party winner	Patricia Gibson 2019 MP, pre-review boundary	13.9%	30.8%	4.4%	-	-	50.9%	8,521	65.4%
2024	Lab gain from SNP	Irene Campbell	39.8%	14.1%	2.4%	8.1% Ref	3.1%	1.1%	3,551	58.6%

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like North Ayrshire and Arran

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to North Ayrshire and Arran. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.