Who is the MP for Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey?

Graham Leadbitter (Scottish National Party) is the MP for Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey. They were first elected in July 2024.

Who won Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey was won by SNP with 32.1% of the vote, ahead of Conservative on 30.0%.

Who is projected to win the next election in Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey?

PollCheck's current projection has SNP on 36.4% and Conservative on 28.3% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey in?

Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey sits within Moray council. Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units, but Moray covers most or all of the Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey area.

What is the demographic profile of Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey?

Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey is in Scotland. The seat is closely divided on Brexit (Leave vote estimated at 45.0% in 2016). Around 43.6% of residents have a degree, a median age of 47, and 67.2% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey, SNP won with 32.1% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey: 2010 Liberal Democrats, 2015 SNP, 2017 SNP, 2019 SNP, 2024 SNP.

Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey MP Graham Leadbitter (Scottish National Party): GE2024 result, current poll projection

Who lives in Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

45.0%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

43.6%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

15.3%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

67.2%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

30.8%

UK average ~36%

Median age

47.1

UK median ~40

Age 65+

27.4%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

24.2%

UK average ~28%

How did Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

SNP hold · majority 1,001 votes (2.1pp) · turnout 60.3%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 800 residents each, from Scotland's 2022 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Holyrood 2026 layer

How Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)

Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey crosses multiple Holyrood boundaries: Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch (49%), Moray (39%), Inverness and Nairn (11%). Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.

Holyrood constituency	Share of Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey	Winner	Runner-up	Elected MSP
Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch	49%	Liberal Democrats 38.9%	SNP 36.5%	Andrew Baxter
Moray	39%	SNP 38.6%	Conservative 30.4%	Laura Mitchell
Inverness and Nairn	11%	SNP 30.4%	Liberal Democrats 29.2%	Emma Roddick

Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new Holyrood second-review boundary (in force from 7 May 2026).

Council layer (not Westminster)

Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey within Moray

The Westminster constituency of Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey sits entirely within Moray Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - the figures below are from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat
Moray 1 LSOAs	100%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010predecessor	LD hold	Danny Alexander Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey MP	22.1%	13.3%	40.7%	1.2% UKIP	1.7%	2.3%	8,765	64.9%
2015predecessor	SNP gain from LD	Drew Hendry Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey MP	7.5%	5.9%	31.3%	2.1% UKIP	2.4%	0.7%	10,809	74.2%
2017predecessor	SNP hold	Drew Hendry Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey MP	16.2%	30.5%	12.3%	-	-	1.2%	4,924	68.7%
2019notional	Scottish National Party winner	Drew Hendry Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey MP, pre-review boundary	4.6%	40.9%	5.9%	0.7% Brx	-	47.9%	2,906	73.8%
2024	SNP hold	Graham Leadbitter	17.7%	30.0%	8.1%	7.5% Ref	3.6%	0.9%	1,001	60.3%

Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.

Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey

Graham Leadbitter