Who is the MP for Monmouthshire?

Catherine Fookes (Labour) is the MP for Monmouthshire. They were first elected in July 2024.

Who won Monmouthshire at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in Monmouthshire was won by Labour with 41.3% of the vote, ahead of Conservative on 34.8%.

Who is projected to win the next election in Monmouthshire?

PollCheck's current projection has Conservative on 29.9% and Labour on 22.2% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is Monmouthshire in?

Monmouthshire sits within Monmouthshire council. Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units, but Monmouthshire covers most or all of the Monmouthshire area.

What is the demographic profile of Monmouthshire?

Monmouthshire is in Wales. The seat is closely divided on Brexit (Leave vote estimated at 53.7% in 2016). Around 39.4% of residents have a degree, a median age of 49, and 71.9% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in Monmouthshire?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In Monmouthshire, Labour won with 41.3% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won Monmouthshire in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in Monmouthshire: 2010 Conservative, 2015 Conservative, 2017 Conservative, 2019 Conservative, 2024 Labour.

Constituency profile

Monmouthshire

Wales · County constituency · Monmouthshire borough

Sitting MP

Catherine Fookes

Labour

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type

Wales

County constituency, Monmouthshire council

Last 5 GE winners

CCCCL

Conservative 4/5, Labour 1/5

EU referendum 2016

53.7% Leave

UK average 51.9%; +1.8pp above mean

Current outlook

Conservative +7.7pp

Vulnerability score 8/10 (Labour projected to lose)

WelshBrexit-marginal

Who lives in Monmouthshire? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

53.7%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

39.4%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

15.7%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

71.9%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

27.6%

UK average ~36%

Median age

49.4

UK median ~40

Age 65+

30.4%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

22.3%

UK average ~28%

How did Monmouthshire vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab gain from Con · majority 3,338 votes (6.5pp) · turnout 68.0%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Monmouthshire

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Senedd 2026 layer

How Monmouthshire voted at the Senedd election (7 May 2026)

Monmouthshire sits almost entirely within the Senedd constituency of Sir Fynwy Torfaen. Senedd elections use a closed-list proportional system; each Senedd seat returns six members.

Senedd constituency	Share of Monmouthshire	Winner	Runner-up	Seats (6 per constituency)
Sir Fynwy Torfaen	99%	Reform UK 31.1%	Plaid Cymru 23.5%	2 Reform UK, 2 Plaid Cymru, 1 Conservative, 1 Labour

Senedd 2026 results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new 16-seat Senedd boundary.

Council layer (not Westminster)

Monmouthshire within Monmouthshire

The Westminster constituency of Monmouthshire sits entirely within Monmouthshire Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - the figures below are from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat
Monmouthshire 58 LSOAs	100%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Monmouthshire at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Monmouthshire at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010predecessor	Con hold	David Davies Monmouth MP	25.9%	48.3%	19.4%	2.4% UKIP	1.3%	-	10,425	72.1%
2015predecessor	Con hold	David Davies Monmouth MP	26.8%	49.9%	5.3%	10.4% UKIP	3.4%	0.2%	10,982	76.2%
2017predecessor	Con hold	David Davies Monmouth MP	36.6%	53.1%	4.2%	1.5% UKIP	1.9%	-	8,206	76.6%
2019notional	Conservative winner	David T. C. Davies Monmouth MP, pre-review boundary	31.6%	52.1%	9.6%	-	2.5%	4.2%	10,837	72.7%
2024	Lab gain from Con	Catherine Fookes	41.3%	34.8%	4.5%	10.7% Ref	4.6%	1.6%	3,338	68.0%

Monmouthshire was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Monmouth (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Monmouthshire

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Monmouthshire. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.