Who is the MP for Middlesbrough and Thornaby East?

Andy McDonald (Labour) is the MP for Middlesbrough and Thornaby East. They were first elected in November 2012.

Who won Middlesbrough and Thornaby East at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in Middlesbrough and Thornaby East was won by Labour with 47.2% of the vote, ahead of Reform UK on 20.5%.

Who is projected to win the next election in Middlesbrough and Thornaby East?

PollCheck's current projection has Labour on 30.4% and Reform UK on 28.7% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is Middlesbrough and Thornaby East in?

Middlesbrough and Thornaby East crosses multiple council boundaries: Middlesbrough (84%), Stockton-on-Tees (16%). Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units.

What is the demographic profile of Middlesbrough and Thornaby East?

Middlesbrough and Thornaby East is in North East. The seat is Leave-voting (Leave vote estimated at 63.0% in 2016). Around 24.7% of residents have a degree, a median age of 35, and 49.1% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in Middlesbrough and Thornaby East?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In Middlesbrough and Thornaby East, Labour won with 47.2% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won Middlesbrough and Thornaby East in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in Middlesbrough and Thornaby East: 2010 Labour, 2015 Labour, 2017 Labour, 2019 Labour, 2024 Labour.

Constituency profile

Middlesbrough and Thornaby East

North East · Borough constituency

Sitting MP

Andy McDonald

Labour

First elected November 2012

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type

North East

Borough constituency

Last 5 GE winners

LLLLL

Labour 5/5

EU referendum 2016

63.0% Leave

UK average 51.9%; +11.1pp above mean

Current outlook

Labour +1.7pp

vs Reform UK 28.7%

NorthernStrong Leave areaWorking-class profile

Who lives in Middlesbrough and Thornaby East? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

63.0%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

24.7%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

25.6%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

49.1%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

50.1%

UK average ~36%

Median age

35.3

UK median ~40

Age 65+

18.5%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

36.7%

UK average ~28%

How did Middlesbrough and Thornaby East vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab hold · majority 9,192 votes (26.7pp) · turnout 45.8%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Middlesbrough and Thornaby East

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Council layer (not Westminster)

Middlesbrough and Thornaby East within Middlesbrough and Stockton-on-Tees

Middlesbrough and Thornaby East crosses multiple council boundaries: Middlesbrough (84%), Stockton-on-Tees (16%). The figures below come from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026 in each constituent council.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat
Middlesbrough 58 LSOAs	84%
Stockton-on-Tees 11 LSOAs	16%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Middlesbrough and Thornaby East at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Middlesbrough and Thornaby East at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010predecessor	Lab hold	Stuart Bell Middlesbrough MP	45.9%	18.8%	19.9%	3.7% UKIP	-	11.7%	8,689	51.4%
2015predecessor	Lab hold	Andy McDonald Middlesbrough MP	56.8%	16.5%	3.7%	18.7% UKIP	4.3%	-	12,477	52.9%
2017predecessor	Lab hold	Andy McDonald Middlesbrough MP	65.7%	26.7%	1.0%	4.1% UKIP	0.7%	1.8%	13,873	58.4%
2019notional	Labour winner	Andy McDonald Middlesbrough MP, pre-review boundary	54.0%	24.3%	2.6%	-	1.5%	17.6%	11,141	52.4%
2024	Lab hold	Andy McDonald	47.2%	17.9%	3.0%	20.5% Ref	4.4%	6.9%	9,192	45.8%

Middlesbrough and Thornaby East was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Middlesbrough (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Middlesbrough and Thornaby East

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Middlesbrough and Thornaby East. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.