Who is the MP for Mid Dunbartonshire?

Susan Murray (Liberal Democrat) is the MP for Mid Dunbartonshire. They were first elected in July 2024.

Who won Mid Dunbartonshire at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in Mid Dunbartonshire was won by Liberal Democrats with 42.4% of the vote, ahead of SNP on 24.0%.

Who is projected to win the next election in Mid Dunbartonshire?

PollCheck's current projection has Liberal Democrats on 43.8% and SNP on 30.5% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is Mid Dunbartonshire in?

Mid Dunbartonshire sits within East Dunbartonshire council. Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units, but East Dunbartonshire covers most or all of the Mid Dunbartonshire area.

What is the demographic profile of Mid Dunbartonshire?

Mid Dunbartonshire is in Scotland. The seat is Remain-voting (Leave vote estimated at 34.8% in 2016). Around 57.4% of residents have a degree, a median age of 47, and 85.7% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in Mid Dunbartonshire?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In Mid Dunbartonshire, Liberal Democrats won with 42.4% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won Mid Dunbartonshire in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in Mid Dunbartonshire: 2010 Liberal Democrats, 2015 SNP, 2017 Liberal Democrats, 2019 SNP, 2024 Liberal Democrats.

Constituency profile

Mid Dunbartonshire

Scotland · County constituency · East Dunbartonshire borough

Sitting MP

Susan Murray

Liberal Democrat

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type

Scotland

County constituency, East Dunbartonshire council

Last 5 GE winners

LDSLDSLD

Liberal Democrats 3/5, SNP 2/5

EU referendum 2016

34.8% Leave

UK average 51.9%; -17.1pp below mean

Current outlook

Liberal Democrats +13.3pp

vs SNP 30.5%

ScottishStrong Remain areaGraduate-heavy

Who lives in Mid Dunbartonshire? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

34.8%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

57.4%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

11.3%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

85.7%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

13.5%

UK average ~36%

Median age

47.4

UK median ~40

Age 65+

29.5%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

21.5%

UK average ~28%

How did Mid Dunbartonshire vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

LD gain from SNP · majority 9,673 votes (18.4pp) · turnout 71.7%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Mid Dunbartonshire

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 800 residents each, from Scotland's 2022 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Holyrood 2026 layer

How Mid Dunbartonshire voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)

Mid Dunbartonshire crosses multiple Holyrood boundaries: Strathkelvin and Bearsden (76%), Clydebank and Milngavie (20%), Stirling (1%). Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.

Holyrood constituency	Share of Mid Dunbartonshire	Winner	Runner-up	Elected MSP
Strathkelvin and Bearsden	76%	Liberal Democrats 39.5%	SNP 33.0%	Adam Harley
Clydebank and Milngavie	20%	SNP 38.6%	Labour 25.2%	Marie McNair
Stirling	1%	SNP 42.4%	Conservative 19.2%	Alyn Smith

Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new Holyrood second-review boundary (in force from 7 May 2026).

Council layer (not Westminster)

Mid Dunbartonshire within East Dunbartonshire

The Westminster constituency of Mid Dunbartonshire sits entirely within East Dunbartonshire Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - the figures below are from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat
East Dunbartonshire 1 LSOAs	100%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Mid Dunbartonshire at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Mid Dunbartonshire at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010predecessor	LD hold	Jo Swinson East Dunbartonshire MP	34.1%	15.5%	38.7%	1.1% UKIP	-	-	2,184	75.2%
2015predecessor	SNP gain from LD	John Nicolson East Dunbartonshire MP	12.3%	8.6%	36.3%	1.0% UKIP	1.5%	-	2,167	81.9%
2017predecessor	LD gain from SNP	Jo Swinson East Dunbartonshire MP	14.5%	14.6%	40.6%	-	-	-	5,339	78.1%
2019notional	Scottish National Party winner	Amy Callaghan East Dunbartonshire MP, pre-review boundary	9.4%	15.6%	34.5%	0.4% Brx	-	40.1%	1,986	78.0%
2024	LD gain from SNP	Susan Murray	20.8%	4.6%	42.4%	4.0% Ref	3.3%	0.9%	9,673	71.7%

Mid Dunbartonshire was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat East Dunbartonshire (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Mid Dunbartonshire

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Mid Dunbartonshire. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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