Who is the MP for Melton and Syston?

Edward Argar (Conservative) is the MP for Melton and Syston. They were first elected in May 2015.

Who won Melton and Syston at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in Melton and Syston was won by Conservative with 38.1% of the vote, ahead of Labour on 26.4%.

Who is projected to win the next election in Melton and Syston?

PollCheck's current projection has Reform UK on 31.8% and Conservative on 29.5% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is Melton and Syston in?

Melton and Syston crosses multiple council boundaries: Melton (56%), Charnwood (44%). Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units.

What is the demographic profile of Melton and Syston?

Melton and Syston is in East Midlands. The seat is closely divided on Brexit (Leave vote estimated at 54.0% in 2016). Around 30.1% of residents have a degree, a median age of 46, and 72.7% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in Melton and Syston?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In Melton and Syston, Conservative won with 38.1% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won Melton and Syston in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in Melton and Syston: 2010 Conservative, 2015 Conservative, 2017 Conservative, 2019 Conservative, 2024 Conservative.

Constituency profile

Melton and Syston

East Midlands · County constituency

Sitting MP

Edward Argar

Conservative

First elected May 2015

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type

East Midlands

County constituency

Last 5 GE winners

CCCCC

Conservative 5/5

EU referendum 2016

54.0% Leave

UK average 51.9%; +2.1pp above mean

Current outlook

Reform UK +2.3pp

Vulnerability score 7/10 (Conservative projected to lose)

MidlandsBrexit-marginal

Who lives in Melton and Syston? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

54.0%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

30.1%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

17.7%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

72.7%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

26.1%

UK average ~36%

Median age

45.5

UK median ~40

Age 65+

26.6%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

25.2%

UK average ~28%

How did Melton and Syston vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Con hold · majority 5,396 votes (11.7pp) · turnout 61.9%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Melton and Syston

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Council layer (not Westminster)

Melton and Syston within Melton and Charnwood

Melton and Syston crosses multiple council boundaries: Melton (56%), Charnwood (44%). The figures below come from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026 in each constituent council.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat
Melton 30 LSOAs	56%
Charnwood 24 LSOAs	44%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Melton and Syston at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Melton and Syston at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010predecessor	Con hold	Alan Duncan Rutland and Melton MP	14.3%	51.1%	25.8%	4.6% UKIP	-	4.2%	14,000	71.5%
2015predecessor	Con hold	Alan Duncan Rutland and Melton MP	15.4%	55.6%	8.1%	15.9% UKIP	4.3%	0.8%	21,705	68.5%
2017predecessor	Con hold	Alan Duncan Rutland and Melton MP	22.7%	62.8%	8.2%	3.2% UKIP	3.0%	-	23,104	73.4%
2019notional	Conservative winner	Alicia Kearns Rutland and Melton MP, pre-review boundary	23.5%	63.3%	7.7%	-	5.5%	-	19,004	66.7%
2024	Con hold	Edward Argar	26.4%	38.1%	5.5%	19.5% Ref	8.0%	2.5%	5,396	61.9%

Melton and Syston was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Rutland and Melton (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Melton and Syston

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Melton and Syston. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.