Who is the MP for Louth and Horncastle?

Victoria Atkins (Conservative) is the MP for Louth and Horncastle. They were first elected in May 2015.

Who won Louth and Horncastle at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in Louth and Horncastle was won by Conservative with 37.5% of the vote, ahead of Reform UK on 25.7%.

Who is projected to win the next election in Louth and Horncastle?

PollCheck's current projection has Reform UK on 41.4% and Conservative on 24.6% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is Louth and Horncastle in?

Louth and Horncastle sits within East Lindsey council. Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units, but East Lindsey covers most or all of the Louth and Horncastle area.

What is the demographic profile of Louth and Horncastle?

Louth and Horncastle is in East Midlands. The seat is Leave-voting (Leave vote estimated at 68.9% in 2016). Around 23.9% of residents have a degree, a median age of 53, and 69.9% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in Louth and Horncastle?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In Louth and Horncastle, Conservative won with 37.5% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won Louth and Horncastle in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in Louth and Horncastle: 2010 Conservative, 2015 Conservative, 2017 Conservative, 2019 Conservative, 2024 Conservative.

Constituency profile

Louth and Horncastle

East Midlands · County constituency · East Lindsey borough

Sitting MP

Victoria Atkins

Conservative

First elected May 2015Shadow: Shadow Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type

East Midlands

County constituency, East Lindsey council

Last 5 GE winners

CCCCC

Conservative 5/5

EU referendum 2016

68.9% Leave

UK average 51.9%; +17.0pp above mean

Current outlook

Reform UK +16.8pp

Vulnerability score 9/10 (Conservative projected to lose)

MidlandsStrong Leave areaWorking-class profile

Who lives in Louth and Horncastle? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

68.9%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

23.9%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

22.4%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

69.9%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

29.0%

UK average ~36%

Median age

52.7

UK median ~40

Age 65+

35.4%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

20.9%

UK average ~28%

How did Louth and Horncastle vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Con hold · majority 5,506 votes (11.8pp) · turnout 60.5%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Louth and Horncastle

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Council layer (not Westminster)

Louth and Horncastle within East Lindsey

The Westminster constituency of Louth and Horncastle sits entirely within East Lindsey Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - the figures below are from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat
East Lindsey 54 LSOAs	100%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Louth and Horncastle at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Louth and Horncastle at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010	Con hold	Peter Tapsell	17.3%	49.6%	22.2%	4.3% UKIP	-	6.5%	13,871	65.0%
2015	Con hold	Victoria Atkins	18.0%	51.2%	4.5%	21.4% UKIP	3.1%	1.8%	14,977	67.2%
2017	Con hold	Victoria Atkins	26.7%	63.9%	3.8%	4.7% UKIP	-	0.9%	19,641	66.8%
2019notional	Conservative winner	Victoria Atkins 2019 MP, pre-review boundary	17.7%	72.5%	7.8%	-	-	2.0%	27,883	67.1%
2024	Con hold	Victoria Atkins	22.5%	37.5%	5.1%	25.7% Ref	5.4%	3.8%	5,506	60.5%

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Louth and Horncastle

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Louth and Horncastle. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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