Who is the MP for Kensington and Bayswater?

Joe Powell (Labour) is the MP for Kensington and Bayswater. They were first elected in July 2024.

Who won Kensington and Bayswater at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in Kensington and Bayswater was won by Labour with 40.6% of the vote, ahead of Conservative on 33.7%.

Who is projected to win the next election in Kensington and Bayswater?

PollCheck's current projection has Conservative on 31.0% and Labour on 25.4% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is Kensington and Bayswater in?

Kensington and Bayswater crosses multiple council boundaries: Kensington and Chelsea (83%), Westminster (17%). Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units.

What is the demographic profile of Kensington and Bayswater?

Kensington and Bayswater is in London. The seat is Remain-voting (Leave vote estimated at 30.5% in 2016). Around 60.3% of residents have a degree, a median age of 38, and 29.9% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in Kensington and Bayswater?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In Kensington and Bayswater, Labour won with 40.6% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won Kensington and Bayswater in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in Kensington and Bayswater: 2010 Conservative, 2015 Conservative, 2017 Labour, 2019 Labour, 2024 Labour.

Constituency profile

Kensington and Bayswater

London · Borough constituency

Sitting MP

Joe Powell

Labour

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type

London

Borough constituency

Last 5 GE winners

CCLLL

Labour 3/5, Conservative 2/5

EU referendum 2016

30.5% Leave

UK average 51.9%; -21.4pp below mean

Current outlook

Conservative +5.6pp

Vulnerability score 7/10 (Labour projected to lose)

LondonStrong Remain areaGraduate-heavyDiverse

Who lives in Kensington and Bayswater? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

30.5%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

60.3%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

11.2%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

29.9%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

68.9%

UK average ~36%

Median age

37.7

UK median ~40

Age 65+

14.9%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

37.7%

UK average ~28%

How did Kensington and Bayswater vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab hold · majority 2,903 votes (6.9pp) · turnout 54.2%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Kensington and Bayswater

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Council layer (not Westminster)

Kensington and Bayswater within Kensington and Chelsea and Westminster

Kensington and Bayswater crosses multiple council boundaries: Kensington and Chelsea (83%), Westminster (17%). The figures below come from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026 in each constituent council.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat	Projection
Kensington and Chelsea 75 LSOAs	83%	View projection ›
Westminster 15 LSOAs	17%	View projection ›

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Kensington and Bayswater at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Kensington and Bayswater at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010predecessor	Con hold	Malcolm Rifkind Kensington MP	25.5%	50.1%	19.6%	2.1% UKIP	2.1%	0.6%	8,616	53.3%
2015predecessor	Con hold	Victoria Borwick Kensington MP	31.1%	52.3%	5.6%	4.5% UKIP	5.1%	1.5%	7,361	57.0%
2017predecessor	Lab gain from Con	Emma Dent Coad Kensington MP	42.2%	42.2%	12.2%	-	2.0%	1.4%	20	63.8%
2019notional	Labour winner	—	39.0%	38.3%	20.2%	-	1.4%	1.1%	390	72.1%
2024	Lab hold	Joe Powell	40.6%	33.7%	6.9%	6.0% Ref	6.5%	6.2%	2,903	54.2%

Kensington and Bayswater was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Kensington (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Kensington and Bayswater

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Kensington and Bayswater. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.