Who is the MP for Henley and Thame?

Freddie van Mierlo (Liberal Democrat) is the MP for Henley and Thame. They were first elected in July 2024.

Who won Henley and Thame at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in Henley and Thame was won by Liberal Democrats with 45.0% of the vote, ahead of Conservative on 33.2%.

Who is projected to win the next election in Henley and Thame?

PollCheck's current projection has Liberal Democrats on 40.0% and Conservative on 23.6% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is Henley and Thame in?

Henley and Thame sits within South Oxfordshire council. Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units, but South Oxfordshire covers most or all of the Henley and Thame area.

What is the demographic profile of Henley and Thame?

Henley and Thame is in South East. The seat is Remain-voting (Leave vote estimated at 43.1% in 2016). Around 44.8% of residents have a degree, a median age of 46, and 72.6% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in Henley and Thame?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In Henley and Thame, Liberal Democrats won with 45.0% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won Henley and Thame in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in Henley and Thame: 2010 Conservative, 2015 Conservative, 2017 Conservative, 2019 Conservative, 2024 Liberal Democrats.

Constituency profile

Henley and Thame

South East · County constituency · South Oxfordshire borough

Sitting MP

Freddie van Mierlo

Liberal Democrat

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type

South East

County constituency, South Oxfordshire council

Last 5 GE winners

CCCCLD

Conservative 4/5, Liberal Democrats 1/5

EU referendum 2016

43.1% Leave

UK average 51.9%; -8.8pp below mean

Current outlook

Liberal Democrats +16.4pp

vs Conservative 23.6%

SouthernRemain-leaningGraduate-heavy

Who lives in Henley and Thame? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

43.1%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

44.8%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

12.2%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

72.6%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

26.3%

UK average ~36%

Median age

46.5

UK median ~40

Age 65+

27.9%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

23.1%

UK average ~28%

How did Henley and Thame vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

LD gain from Con · majority 6,267 votes (11.8pp) · turnout 72.1%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Henley and Thame

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Council layer (not Westminster)

Henley and Thame within South Oxfordshire

The Westminster constituency of Henley and Thame sits entirely within South Oxfordshire Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - the figures below are from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat
South Oxfordshire 60 LSOAs	100%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Henley and Thame at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Henley and Thame at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010predecessor	Con hold	John Howell Henley MP	10.9%	56.2%	25.2%	3.4% UKIP	2.5%	1.9%	16,588	73.2%
2015predecessor	Con hold	John Howell Henley MP	12.5%	58.5%	11.2%	10.9% UKIP	6.9%	-	25,375	70.9%
2017predecessor	Con hold	John Howell Henley MP	20.1%	59.1%	14.9%	2.0% UKIP	3.3%	0.7%	22,294	76.1%
2019notional	Conservative winner	John Howell Henley MP, pre-review boundary	8.9%	54.5%	32.4%	-	4.2%	-	11,901	76.2%
2024	LD gain from Con	Freddie Van Mierlo	6.7%	33.2%	45.0%	9.8% Ref	3.8%	1.5%	6,267	72.1%

Henley and Thame was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Henley (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Henley and Thame

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Henley and Thame. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.