Who is the MP for Grantham and Bourne?

Gareth Davies (Conservative) is the MP for Grantham and Bourne. They were first elected in December 2019.

Who won Grantham and Bourne at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in Grantham and Bourne was won by Conservative with 36.4% of the vote, ahead of Labour on 26.6%.

Who is projected to win the next election in Grantham and Bourne?

PollCheck's current projection has Reform UK on 35.9% and Conservative on 24.2% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is Grantham and Bourne in?

Grantham and Bourne crosses multiple council boundaries: South Kesteven (93%), North Kesteven (7%). Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units.

What is the demographic profile of Grantham and Bourne?

Grantham and Bourne is in East Midlands. The seat is Leave-voting (Leave vote estimated at 61.3% in 2016). Around 28.2% of residents have a degree, a median age of 46, and 67.7% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in Grantham and Bourne?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In Grantham and Bourne, Conservative won with 36.4% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won Grantham and Bourne in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in Grantham and Bourne: 2010 Conservative, 2015 Conservative, 2017 Conservative, 2019 Conservative, 2024 Conservative.

Constituency profile

Grantham and Bourne

East Midlands · County constituency

Sitting MP

Gareth Davies

Conservative

First elected December 2019

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type

East Midlands

County constituency

Last 5 GE winners

CCCCC

Conservative 5/5

EU referendum 2016

61.3% Leave

UK average 51.9%; +9.4pp above mean

Current outlook

Reform UK +11.7pp

Vulnerability score 8/10 (Conservative projected to lose)

MidlandsStrong Leave area

Who lives in Grantham and Bourne? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

61.3%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

28.2%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

18.0%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

67.7%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

31.3%

UK average ~36%

Median age

46.1

UK median ~40

Age 65+

27.7%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

24.7%

UK average ~28%

How did Grantham and Bourne vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Con hold · majority 4,496 votes (9.8pp) · turnout 62.9%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Grantham and Bourne

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Council layer (not Westminster)

Grantham and Bourne within South Kesteven and North Kesteven

Grantham and Bourne crosses multiple council boundaries: South Kesteven (93%), North Kesteven (7%). The figures below come from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026 in each constituent council.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat
South Kesteven 53 LSOAs	93%
North Kesteven 4 LSOAs	7%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Grantham and Bourne at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Grantham and Bourne at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010predecessor	Con hold	Stephen Phillips Sleaford and North Hykeham MP	16.9%	51.6%	18.2%	3.6% UKIP	-	9.7%	19,905	70.2%
2015predecessor	Con hold	Stephen Phillips Sleaford and North Hykeham MP	17.3%	56.2%	5.7%	15.7% UKIP	-	5.2%	24,115	70.4%
2017predecessor	Con hold	Caroline Johnson Sleaford and North Hykeham MP	25.8%	64.2%	4.1%	3.0% UKIP	1.5%	1.4%	25,237	72.4%
2019notional	Conservative winner	Caroline Johnson Sleaford and North Hykeham MP, pre-review boundary	20.0%	65.8%	9.0%	-	4.3%	0.9%	22,393	67.8%
2024	Con hold	Gareth Davies	26.6%	36.4%	4.4%	20.4% Ref	5.6%	6.7%	4,496	62.9%

Grantham and Bourne was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Sleaford and North Hykeham (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Grantham and Bourne

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Grantham and Bourne. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.