Who is the MP for Gordon and Buchan?

Harriet Cross (Conservative) is the MP for Gordon and Buchan. They were first elected in July 2024.

Who won Gordon and Buchan at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in Gordon and Buchan was won by Conservative with 32.9% of the vote, ahead of SNP on 30.9%.

Who is projected to win the next election in Gordon and Buchan?

PollCheck's current projection has SNP on 28.6% and Conservative on 25.8% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What is the demographic profile of Gordon and Buchan?

Gordon and Buchan is in Scotland. The seat is closely divided on Brexit (Leave vote estimated at 48.9% in 2016). Around 45.6% of residents have a degree, a median age of 45, and 76.3% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in Gordon and Buchan?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In Gordon and Buchan, Conservative won with 32.9% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won Gordon and Buchan in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in Gordon and Buchan: 2010 Liberal Democrats, 2015 SNP, 2017 Conservative, 2019 Conservative, 2024 Conservative.

Constituency profile

Gordon and Buchan

Scotland · County constituency

Sitting MP

Harriet Cross

Conservative

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type

Scotland

County constituency

Last 5 GE winners

LDSCCC

Conservative 3/5, Liberal Democrats 1/5, SNP 1/5

EU referendum 2016

48.9% Leave

UK average 51.9%; -3.0pp below mean

Current outlook

SNP +2.8pp

Vulnerability score 6/10 (Conservative projected to lose)

ScottishBrexit-marginalGraduate-heavy

Who lives in Gordon and Buchan? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

48.9%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

45.6%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

13.2%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

76.3%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

22.2%

UK average ~36%

Median age

44.8

UK median ~40

Age 65+

25.1%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

23.7%

UK average ~28%

How did Gordon and Buchan vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Con hold · majority 878 votes (2.0pp) · turnout 63.0%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Gordon and Buchan

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 800 residents each, from Scotland's 2022 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Holyrood 2026 layer

How Gordon and Buchan voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)

Gordon and Buchan crosses multiple Holyrood boundaries: Aberdeenshire East (56%), Aberdeenshire West (44%). Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.

Holyrood constituency	Share of Gordon and Buchan	Winner	Runner-up	Elected MSP
Aberdeenshire East	56%	SNP 33.4%	Conservative 30.7%	Gillian Martin
Aberdeenshire West	44%	Conservative 42.9%	SNP 27.3%	Alexander Burnett

Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new Holyrood second-review boundary (in force from 7 May 2026).

Council layer (not Westminster)

Gordon and Buchan within Council layer

No council overlap data available for Gordon and Buchan.

Council overlap

No council overlap data.

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Gordon and Buchan at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Gordon and Buchan at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010predecessor	LD hold	Malcolm Bruce Gordon MP	20.1%	18.7%	36.0%	-	1.5%	1.4%	6,748	66.4%
2015predecessor	SNP gain from LD	Alex Salmond Gordon MP	5.9%	11.7%	32.7%	2.0% UKIP	-	-	8,687	73.3%
2017predecessor	Con gain from SNP	Colin Clark Gordon MP	11.8%	40.7%	11.6%	-	-	-	2,607	68.4%
2019notional	Conservative winner	David Duguid Banff and Buchan MP, pre-review boundary	3.5%	46.0%	11.3%	-	-	39.2%	3,224	67.8%
2024	Con hold	Harriet Cross	10.7%	32.9%	16.7%	8.9% Ref	-	-	878	63.0%

Gordon and Buchan was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Gordon (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Gordon and Buchan

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Gordon and Buchan. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.