Who is the MP for Filton and Bradley Stoke?

Claire Hazelgrove (Labour) is the MP for Filton and Bradley Stoke. They were first elected in July 2024.

Who won Filton and Bradley Stoke at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in Filton and Bradley Stoke was won by Labour with 45.5% of the vote, ahead of Conservative on 25.6%.

Who is projected to win the next election in Filton and Bradley Stoke?

PollCheck's current projection has Labour on 29.8% and Reform UK on 27.4% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is Filton and Bradley Stoke in?

Filton and Bradley Stoke sits within South Gloucestershire council. Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units, but South Gloucestershire covers most or all of the Filton and Bradley Stoke area.

What is the demographic profile of Filton and Bradley Stoke?

Filton and Bradley Stoke is in South West. The seat is closely divided on Brexit (Leave vote estimated at 48.8% in 2016). Around 37.4% of residents have a degree, a median age of 37, and 68.0% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in Filton and Bradley Stoke?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In Filton and Bradley Stoke, Labour won with 45.5% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won Filton and Bradley Stoke in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in Filton and Bradley Stoke: 2010 Conservative, 2015 Conservative, 2017 Conservative, 2019 Conservative, 2024 Labour.

Constituency profile

Filton and Bradley Stoke

South West · Borough constituency · South Gloucestershire borough

Sitting MP

Claire Hazelgrove

Labour

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type

South West

Borough constituency, South Gloucestershire council

Last 5 GE winners

CCCCL

Conservative 4/5, Labour 1/5

EU referendum 2016

48.8% Leave

UK average 51.9%; -3.1pp below mean

Current outlook

Labour +2.4pp

vs Reform UK 27.4%

SouthernBrexit-marginal

Who lives in Filton and Bradley Stoke? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

48.8%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

37.4%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

11.9%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

68.0%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

30.6%

UK average ~36%

Median age

36.6

UK median ~40

Age 65+

17.7%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

36.2%

UK average ~28%

How did Filton and Bradley Stoke vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab gain from Con · majority 10,000 votes (19.9pp) · turnout 64.9%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Filton and Bradley Stoke

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Council layer (not Westminster)

Filton and Bradley Stoke within South Gloucestershire

The Westminster constituency of Filton and Bradley Stoke sits entirely within South Gloucestershire Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - the figures below are from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat
South Gloucestershire 66 LSOAs	100%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Filton and Bradley Stoke at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Filton and Bradley Stoke at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010	Con hold	Jack Lopresti	26.4%	40.8%	25.3%	3.1% UKIP	0.9%	3.5%	6,914	70.0%
2015	Con hold	Jack Lopresti	26.6%	46.7%	7.3%	14.8% UKIP	4.6%	-	9,838	68.9%
2017	Con hold	Jack Lopresti	41.7%	50.0%	6.0%	-	2.3%	-	4,190	70.0%
2019notional	Conservative winner	Jack Lopresti 2019 MP, pre-review boundary	35.8%	51.0%	10.0%	-	2.7%	0.5%	7,842	70.0%
2024	Lab gain from Con	Claire Hazelgrove	45.5%	25.6%	7.1%	13.5% Ref	8.2%	-	10,000	64.9%

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Filton and Bradley Stoke

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Filton and Bradley Stoke. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.