Who is the MP for Farnham and Bordon?

Gregory Stafford (Conservative) is the MP for Farnham and Bordon. They were first elected in July 2024.

Who won Farnham and Bordon at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in Farnham and Bordon was won by Conservative with 35.8% of the vote, ahead of Liberal Democrats on 33.2%.

Who is projected to win the next election in Farnham and Bordon?

PollCheck's current projection has Liberal Democrats on 31.1% and Conservative on 27.0% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is Farnham and Bordon in?

Farnham and Bordon crosses multiple council boundaries: Waverley (64%), East Hampshire (36%). Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units.

What is the demographic profile of Farnham and Bordon?

Farnham and Bordon is in South East. The seat is closely divided on Brexit (Leave vote estimated at 45.0% in 2016). Around 42.9% of residents have a degree, a median age of 44, and 72.5% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in Farnham and Bordon?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In Farnham and Bordon, Conservative won with 35.8% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won Farnham and Bordon in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in Farnham and Bordon: 2010 Conservative, 2015 Conservative, 2017 Conservative, 2019 Conservative, 2024 Conservative.

Constituency profile

Farnham and Bordon

South East · County constituency

Sitting MP

Gregory Stafford

Conservative

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type

South East

County constituency

Last 5 GE winners

CCCCC

Conservative 5/5

EU referendum 2016

45.0% Leave

UK average 51.9%; -6.9pp below mean

Current outlook

Liberal Democrats +4.1pp

Vulnerability score 8/10 (Conservative projected to lose)

SouthernRemain-leaningGraduate-heavy

Who lives in Farnham and Bordon? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

45.0%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

42.9%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

12.2%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

72.5%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

26.3%

UK average ~36%

Median age

44.5

UK median ~40

Age 65+

25.5%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

25.0%

UK average ~28%

How did Farnham and Bordon vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Con hold · majority 1,349 votes (2.6pp) · turnout 69.8%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Farnham and Bordon

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Council layer (not Westminster)

Farnham and Bordon within Waverley and East Hampshire

Farnham and Bordon crosses multiple council boundaries: Waverley (64%), East Hampshire (36%). The figures below come from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026 in each constituent council.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat
Waverley 41 LSOAs	64%
East Hampshire 23 LSOAs	36%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Farnham and Bordon at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Farnham and Bordon at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010predecessor	Con hold	Jeremy Hunt South West Surrey MP	6.0%	58.7%	30.2%	2.6% UKIP	1.2%	1.3%	16,318	74.8%
2015predecessor	Con hold	Jeremy Hunt South West Surrey MP	9.5%	59.9%	6.3%	9.9% UKIP	5.4%	9.1%	28,556	73.7%
2017predecessor	Con hold	Jeremy Hunt South West Surrey MP	12.6%	55.7%	9.9%	1.8% UKIP	-	20.0%	21,590	77.4%
2019notional	Conservative winner	Jeremy Hunt South West Surrey MP, pre-review boundary	6.8%	59.4%	32.8%	-	0.9%	0.1%	13,577	70.1%
2024	Con hold	Greg Stafford	13.8%	35.7%	33.2%	11.7% Ref	4.7%	0.8%	1,349	69.8%

Farnham and Bordon was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat South West Surrey (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Farnham and Bordon

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Farnham and Bordon. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.