Who is the MP for Fareham and Waterlooville?

Suella Braverman (Reform UK) is the MP for Fareham and Waterlooville. They were first elected in May 2015.

Who won Fareham and Waterlooville at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in Fareham and Waterlooville was won by Conservative with 35.0% of the vote, ahead of Labour on 22.9%.

Who is projected to win the next election in Fareham and Waterlooville?

PollCheck's current projection has Reform UK on 32.4% and Conservative on 31.2% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is Fareham and Waterlooville in?

Fareham and Waterlooville crosses multiple council boundaries: Fareham (57%), Havant (29%), Winchester (14%). Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units.

What is the demographic profile of Fareham and Waterlooville?

Fareham and Waterlooville is in South East. The seat is closely divided on Brexit (Leave vote estimated at 53.7% in 2016). Around 29.5% of residents have a degree, a median age of 47, and 74.4% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in Fareham and Waterlooville?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In Fareham and Waterlooville, Conservative won with 35.0% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won Fareham and Waterlooville in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in Fareham and Waterlooville: 2010 Conservative, 2015 Conservative, 2017 Conservative, 2019 Conservative, 2024 Conservative.

Constituency profile

Fareham and Waterlooville

South East · County constituency

Sitting MP

Suella Braverman

Reform UK

First elected May 2015

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type

South East

County constituency

Last 5 GE winners

CCCCC

Conservative 5/5

EU referendum 2016

53.7% Leave

UK average 51.9%; +1.8pp above mean

Current outlook

Reform UK +1.2pp

Vulnerability score 7/10 (Conservative projected to lose)

SouthernBrexit-marginal

Who lives in Fareham and Waterlooville? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

53.7%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

29.5%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

16.4%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

74.4%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

24.5%

UK average ~36%

Median age

46.8

UK median ~40

Age 65+

29.2%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

24.8%

UK average ~28%

How did Fareham and Waterlooville vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Con hold · majority 6,079 votes (12.1pp) · turnout 65.1%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Fareham and Waterlooville

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Council layer (not Westminster)

Fareham and Waterlooville within Fareham and Havant and 1 other council

Fareham and Waterlooville crosses multiple council boundaries: Fareham (57%), Havant (29%), Winchester (14%). The figures below come from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026 in each constituent council.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat	Projection
Fareham 36 LSOAs	57%	View projection ›
Havant 18 LSOAs	29%	View projection ›
Winchester 9 LSOAs	14%	View projection ›

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Fareham and Waterlooville at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Fareham and Waterlooville at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010predecessor	Con hold	George Hollingbery Meon Valley MP	6.4%	56.2%	32.6%	2.9% UKIP	-	1.9%	12,125	72.7%
2015predecessor	Con hold	George Hollingbery Meon Valley MP	10.9%	61.1%	9.6%	14.8% UKIP	3.5%	-	23,913	71.1%
2017predecessor	Con hold	George Hollingbery Meon Valley MP	18.3%	65.7%	10.9%	2.6% UKIP	2.4%	-	25,692	73.0%
2019notional	Conservative winner	Flick Drummond Meon Valley MP, pre-review boundary	15.8%	61.2%	18.9%	-	4.1%	-	21,276	65.4%
2024	Con hold	Suella Braverman	22.9%	35.0%	19.0%	18.1% Ref	4.1%	0.9%	6,079	65.1%

Fareham and Waterlooville was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Meon Valley (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Fareham and Waterlooville

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Fareham and Waterlooville. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.