Constituency profile

Edinburgh South West

Scotland · Burgh constituency · Edinburgh borough

Dr Scott Arthur MP
Sitting MP

Dr Scott Arthur

Labour

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
Scotland
Burgh constituency, Edinburgh council
Last 5 GE winners
LSSSL
SNP 3/5, Labour 2/5
EU referendum 2016
27.9% Leave
UK average 51.9%; -24.0pp below mean
Current outlook
SNP +12.6pp
Vulnerability score 8/10 (Labour projected to lose)
ScottishStrong Remain areaGraduate-heavy

Who lives in Edinburgh South West? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
27.9%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
56.6%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
10.1%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
56.5%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
42.5%
UK average ~36%
Median age
36.1
UK median ~40
Age 65+
17.8%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
40.3%
UK average ~28%

How did Edinburgh South West vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab gain from SNP · majority 6,217 votes (13.6pp) · turnout 61.9%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Edinburgh South West

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 800 residents each, from Scotland's 2022 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Holyrood 2026 layer

How Edinburgh South West voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)

Edinburgh South West crosses multiple Holyrood boundaries: Edinburgh South Western (89%), Edinburgh Central (3%), Edinburgh Southern (3%), Almond Valley (2%), Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale (2%), Edinburgh North Western (1%). Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.

Holyrood constituencyShare of Edinburgh South WestWinnerRunner-upElected MSP
Edinburgh South Western89%SNP 36.2%Labour 26.0%Simita Kumar
Edinburgh Central3%Green 36.0%Labour 23.0%Lorna Slater
Edinburgh Southern3%Labour 42.9%SNP 30.3%Daniel Johnson
Almond Valley2%SNP 46.3%Labour 21.9%Angela Constance
Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale2%SNP 40.9%Conservative 20.1%Calum Kerr
Edinburgh North Western1%Liberal Democrats 57.2%SNP 24.8%Alex Cole-Hamilton

Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new Holyrood second-review boundary (in force from 7 May 2026).

Council layer (not Westminster)

Edinburgh South West within Edinburgh

The Westminster constituency of Edinburgh South West sits entirely within Edinburgh Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - the figures below are from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026.

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
Edinburgh
1 LSOAs
100%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...
Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Edinburgh South West at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Edinburgh South West at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Lab holdAlistair Darling42.8%24.3%18.0%-1.9%0.8%8,44768.5%
2015SNP gain from LabJoanna Cherry27.2%20.2%3.7%2.1% UKIP3.8%-8,13571.5%
2017SNP holdJoanna Cherry26.8%33.4%4.3%---1,09769.4%
2019notionalScottish National Party winnerJoanna Cherry 2019 MP, pre-review boundary14.3%24.6%9.5%--51.6%11,98271.1%
2024Lab gain from SNPScott Arthur40.9%12.2%6.6%4.6% Ref7.6%1.0%6,21761.9%

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Edinburgh South West

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Edinburgh South West. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

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