Who is the MP for East Renfrewshire?

Blair McDougall (Labour) is the MP for East Renfrewshire. They were first elected in July 2024.

Who won East Renfrewshire at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in East Renfrewshire was won by Labour with 43.7% of the vote, ahead of SNP on 26.9%.

Who is projected to win the next election in East Renfrewshire?

PollCheck's current projection has SNP on 34.4% and Labour on 22.6% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is East Renfrewshire in?

East Renfrewshire sits within East Renfrewshire council. Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units, but East Renfrewshire covers most or all of the East Renfrewshire area.

What is the demographic profile of East Renfrewshire?

East Renfrewshire is in Scotland. The seat is Remain-voting (Leave vote estimated at 25.7% in 2016). Around 56.4% of residents have a degree, a median age of 44, and 82.6% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in East Renfrewshire?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In East Renfrewshire, Labour won with 43.7% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won East Renfrewshire in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in East Renfrewshire: 2010 Labour, 2015 SNP, 2017 Conservative, 2019 SNP, 2024 Labour.

Constituency profile

East Renfrewshire

Scotland · County constituency · East Renfrewshire borough

Sitting MP

Blair McDougall

Labour

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type

Scotland

County constituency, East Renfrewshire council

Last 5 GE winners

LSCSL

Labour 2/5, SNP 2/5, Conservative 1/5

EU referendum 2016

25.7% Leave

UK average 51.9%; -26.2pp below mean

Current outlook

SNP +11.8pp

Vulnerability score 8/10 (Labour projected to lose)

ScottishStrong Remain areaGraduate-heavy

Who lives in East Renfrewshire? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

25.7%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

56.4%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

11.6%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

82.6%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

16.6%

UK average ~36%

Median age

44.5

UK median ~40

Age 65+

26.6%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

23.6%

UK average ~28%

How did East Renfrewshire vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab gain from SNP · majority 8,421 votes (16.8pp) · turnout 67.3%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of East Renfrewshire

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 800 residents each, from Scotland's 2022 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Holyrood 2026 layer

How East Renfrewshire voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)

East Renfrewshire crosses multiple Holyrood boundaries: Eastwood (71%), Renfrewshire West and Levern Valley (24%), Glasgow Cathcart and Pollok (2%), Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley (1%). Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.

Holyrood constituency	Share of East Renfrewshire	Winner	Runner-up	Elected MSP
Eastwood	71%	SNP 33.2%	Conservative 31.3%	Kirsten Oswald
Renfrewshire West and Levern Valley	24%	SNP 40.4%	Labour 30.8%	Tom Arthur
Glasgow Cathcart and Pollok	2%	SNP 44.3%	Labour 28.3%	Zen Ghani
Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley	1%	SNP 40.9%	Labour 25.6%	Alan Brown

Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new Holyrood second-review boundary (in force from 7 May 2026).

Council layer (not Westminster)

East Renfrewshire within East Renfrewshire

The Westminster constituency of East Renfrewshire sits entirely within East Renfrewshire Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - the figures below are from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat
East Renfrewshire 1 LSOAs	100%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for East Renfrewshire at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won East Renfrewshire at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010	Lab hold	Jim Murphy	50.8%	30.4%	9.2%	0.7% UKIP	-	-	10,420	77.3%
2015	SNP gain from Lab	Kirsten Oswald	34.0%	22.0%	1.9%	1.6% UKIP	-	-	3,718	81.1%
2017	Con gain from SNP	Paul Masterton	26.7%	40.0%	2.1%	-	-	-	4,712	76.7%
2019notional	Scottish National Party winner	Kirsten Oswald 2019 MP, pre-review boundary	12.4%	35.1%	7.5%	-	-	45.0%	5,426	75.9%
2024	Lab gain from SNP	Blair McDougall	43.7%	16.9%	2.3%	4.7% Ref	3.0%	2.5%	8,421	67.3%

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like East Renfrewshire

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to East Renfrewshire. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.