Who is the MP for East Hampshire?

Damian Hinds (Conservative) is the MP for East Hampshire. They were first elected in May 2010.

Who won East Hampshire at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in East Hampshire was won by Conservative with 37.0% of the vote, ahead of Liberal Democrats on 34.5%.

Who is projected to win the next election in East Hampshire?

PollCheck's current projection has Liberal Democrats on 33.0% and Conservative on 29.9% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is East Hampshire in?

East Hampshire sits within East Hampshire council. Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units, but East Hampshire covers most or all of the East Hampshire area.

What is the demographic profile of East Hampshire?

East Hampshire is in South East. The seat is closely divided on Brexit (Leave vote estimated at 49.3% in 2016). Around 40.1% of residents have a degree, a median age of 48, and 72.7% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in East Hampshire?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In East Hampshire, Conservative won with 37.0% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won East Hampshire in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in East Hampshire: 2010 Conservative, 2015 Conservative, 2017 Conservative, 2019 Conservative, 2024 Conservative.

Constituency profile

East Hampshire

South East · County constituency

Sitting MP

Damian Hinds

Conservative

First elected May 2010

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type

South East

County constituency

Last 5 GE winners

CCCCC

Conservative 5/5

EU referendum 2016

49.3% Leave

UK average 51.9%; -2.6pp below mean

Current outlook

Liberal Democrats +3.1pp

Vulnerability score 8/10 (Conservative projected to lose)

SouthernBrexit-marginalGraduate-heavy

Who lives in East Hampshire? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

49.3%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

40.1%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

12.6%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

72.7%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

25.9%

UK average ~36%

Median age

47.6

UK median ~40

Age 65+

28.6%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

23.1%

UK average ~28%

How did East Hampshire vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Con hold · majority 1,275 votes (2.5pp) · turnout 70.8%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of East Hampshire

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Council layer (not Westminster)

East Hampshire within East Hampshire

The Westminster constituency of East Hampshire sits almost entirely within East Hampshire Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - the figures below are from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat	Projection
East Hampshire 51 LSOAs	96%	—
Basingstoke and Deane 2 LSOAs	4%	View projection ›

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for East Hampshire at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won East Hampshire at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010	Con hold	Damian Hinds	7.9%	56.8%	30.5%	2.9% UKIP	-	2.0%	13,497	71.0%
2015	Con hold	Damian Hinds	10.1%	60.7%	11.1%	12.0% UKIP	6.1%	-	25,147	72.7%
2017	Con hold	Damian Hinds	17.0%	63.6%	15.2%	-	3.2%	1.0%	25,852	74.7%
2019notional	Conservative winner	Damian Hinds 2019 MP, pre-review boundary	12.3%	59.0%	21.7%	1.1% Brx	5.5%	0.4%	20,200	77.4%
2024	Con hold	Damian Hinds	9.7%	37.0%	34.5%	13.0% Ref	4.8%	1.0%	1,275	70.8%

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like East Hampshire

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to East Hampshire. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.