Who is the MP for Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale?

David Mundell (Conservative) is the MP for Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale. They were first elected in May 2005.

Who won Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale was won by Conservative with 33.9% of the vote, ahead of SNP on 24.3%.

Who is projected to win the next election in Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale?

PollCheck's current projection has Conservative on 32.9% and SNP on 28.9% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale in?

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale sits within Scottish Borders council. Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units, but Scottish Borders covers most or all of the Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale area.

What is the demographic profile of Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale?

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale is in Scotland. The seat is Remain-voting (Leave vote estimated at 44.6% in 2016). Around 40.5% of residents have a degree, a median age of 51, and 66.7% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale, Conservative won with 33.9% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale: 2010 Conservative, 2015 Conservative, 2017 Conservative, 2019 Conservative, 2024 Conservative.

Constituency profile

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale

Scotland · County constituency · Scottish Borders borough

Sitting MP

David Mundell

Conservative

First elected May 2005

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type

Scotland

County constituency, Scottish Borders council

Last 5 GE winners

CCCCC

Conservative 5/5

EU referendum 2016

44.6% Leave

UK average 51.9%; -7.3pp below mean

Current outlook

Conservative +4.0pp

vs SNP 28.9%

ScottishRemain-leaningGraduate-heavy

Who lives in Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

44.6%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

40.5%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

19.6%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

66.7%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

31.1%

UK average ~36%

Median age

50.6

UK median ~40

Age 65+

30.3%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

21.3%

UK average ~28%

How did Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Con hold · majority 4,242 votes (9.6pp) · turnout 61.5%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 800 residents each, from Scotland's 2022 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Holyrood 2026 layer

How Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale crosses multiple Holyrood boundaries: Dumfriesshire (57%), Clydesdale (22%), Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale (20%). Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.

Holyrood constituency	Share of Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale	Winner	Runner-up	Elected MSP
Dumfriesshire	57%	Conservative 34.8%	SNP 31.4%	Craig Hoy
Clydesdale	22%	SNP 36.3%	Labour 24.1%	Màiri McAllan
Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale	20%	SNP 40.9%	Conservative 20.1%	Calum Kerr

Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new Holyrood second-review boundary (in force from 7 May 2026).

Council layer (not Westminster)

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale within Scottish Borders

The Westminster constituency of Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale sits entirely within Scottish Borders Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - the figures below are from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat
Scottish Borders 1 LSOAs	100%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010	Con hold	David Mundell	28.9%	38.0%	19.8%	1.4% UKIP	1.1%	-	4,194	68.9%
2015	Con hold	David Mundell	14.8%	39.8%	2.7%	2.8% UKIP	1.6%	-	798	76.1%
2017	Con hold	David Mundell	16.5%	49.4%	4.0%	-	-	-	9,441	72.4%
2019notional	Conservative winner	David Mundell 2019 MP, pre-review boundary	8.3%	46.5%	7.3%	-	-	37.9%	4,338	72.0%
2024	Con hold	David Mundell	22.9%	33.9%	6.3%	8.6% Ref	3.4%	0.5%	4,242	61.5%

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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