Who is the MP for Dumfries and Galloway?

John Cooper (Conservative) is the MP for Dumfries and Galloway. They were first elected in July 2024.

Who won Dumfries and Galloway at the 2024 general election?

The 2024 general election in Dumfries and Galloway was won by Conservative with 29.6% of the vote, ahead of SNP on 27.5%.

Who is projected to win the next election in Dumfries and Galloway?

PollCheck's current projection has SNP on 32.5% and Conservative on 25.8% if a general election were held today. The projection updates as new polling is added.

What council is Dumfries and Galloway in?

Dumfries and Galloway sits within Dumfries and Galloway council. Westminster constituencies and local councils are separate units, but Dumfries and Galloway covers most or all of the Dumfries and Galloway area.

What is the demographic profile of Dumfries and Galloway?

Dumfries and Galloway is in Scotland. The seat is closely divided on Brexit (Leave vote estimated at 45.1% in 2016). Around 38.4% of residents have a degree, a median age of 51, and 65.1% of homes are owner-occupied (Census 2021).

When was the last general election in Dumfries and Galloway?

The most recent general election was held on 4 July 2024. In Dumfries and Galloway, Conservative won with 29.6% of the vote. The next general election must be held by August 2029.

Which parties have won Dumfries and Galloway in recent elections?

Recent general election winners in Dumfries and Galloway: 2010 Labour, 2015 SNP, 2017 Conservative, 2019 Conservative, 2024 Conservative.

Constituency profile

Dumfries and Galloway

Scotland · County constituency · Dumfries and Galloway borough

Sitting MP

John Cooper

Conservative

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type

Scotland

County constituency, Dumfries and Galloway council

Last 5 GE winners

LSCCC

Conservative 3/5, Labour 1/5, SNP 1/5

EU referendum 2016

45.1% Leave

UK average 51.9%; -6.8pp below mean

Current outlook

SNP +6.7pp

Vulnerability score 7/10 (Conservative projected to lose)

ScottishBrexit-marginal

Who lives in Dumfries and Galloway? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016

45.1%

UK average ~52%

Degree or above

38.4%

UK average ~34%

No qualifications

21.0%

UK average ~18%

Owner-occupied

65.1%

UK average ~63%

Renting (social + private)

32.4%

UK average ~36%

Median age

50.7

UK median ~40

Age 65+

31.4%

UK average ~19%

Age 18-34

22.5%

UK average ~28%

How did Dumfries and Galloway vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Con hold · majority 930 votes (2.1pp) · turnout 58.3%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Dumfries and Galloway

Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 800 residents each, from Scotland's 2022 Census). Hover any area for detail.

Holyrood 2026 layer

How Dumfries and Galloway voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)

Dumfries and Galloway sits almost entirely within the Holyrood constituency of Galloway and West Dumfries. Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.

Holyrood constituency	Share of Dumfries and Galloway	Winner	Runner-up	Elected MSP
Galloway and West Dumfries	92%	Conservative 38.3%	SNP 33.0%	Finlay Carson
Dumfriesshire	7%	Conservative 34.8%	SNP 31.4%	Craig Hoy

Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new Holyrood second-review boundary (in force from 7 May 2026).

Council layer (not Westminster)

Dumfries and Galloway within Dumfries and Galloway

The Westminster constituency of Dumfries and Galloway sits entirely within Dumfries and Galloway Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - the figures below are from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026.

Council overlap

Council	Share of seat
Dumfries and Galloway 1 LSOAs	100%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward. Where May 2026 elections happened, those are shown; otherwise the most recent year on the ward’s pre-2026 boundary (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024). The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.

Loading ward results...

Ward	GE2024 winner	Latest council winner	Shift since GE2024	Turnout

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Dumfries and Galloway at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Dumfries and Galloway at past general elections?

2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.

Year	Result	MP	Lab	Con	LD	Right (Ref/UKIP)	Green	Other	Majority	Turnout
2010	Lab hold	Russell Brown	45.9%	31.6%	8.8%	1.3% UKIP	-	-	7,449	70.0%
2015	SNP gain from Lab	Richard Arkless	24.7%	29.9%	1.7%	2.3% UKIP	-	-	6,514	75.2%
2017	Con gain from SNP	Alister Jack	20.9%	43.3%	2.4%	-	-	1.0%	5,643	69.5%
2019notional	Conservative winner	Alister Jack 2019 MP, pre-review boundary	9.4%	43.8%	6.0%	-	-	40.8%	1,556	68.3%
2024	Con hold	John Cooper	25.7%	29.6%	4.6%	9.4% Ref	2.7%	0.5%	930	58.3%

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Dumfries and Galloway

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Dumfries and Galloway. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Sources

2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.